Abeldane federal election, June 2020

June 2020 Abeldane federal election

27–29 June 2020
11 of 13 seats in the Reichsversammlung 7 seats needed for a majority
Registered	59 ▲ 47.5%
Turnout	95% (▼ 5 pp)
First party Second party   Leader Connor Stumperth Edward Daniels Party Pirate League (Abelden) Liberty Front Alliance Concordia Concordia Leader since 30 May 2020 17 January 2019 Leader's seat 12th 9th Last election New 1 + 1 seats, 10.0% Seats before 1 1 Seats won 5 3 + 1 Seat change ▲4 ▲3 Popular vote 23 14 Percentage 40.35% 24.59% Swing New ▲14.6 pp   Third party Fourth party   Leader Nicolas Millan Patrick Renwick Party Party of Royalists and Greens Abeldane National Union Leader since 19 May 2020 29 May 2020 Leader's seat 7th 4th Last election 3 seats, 30.0% 7 + 1 seats, 60.0% Seats before 4 6 Seats won 2 1 Seat change ▼2 ▼5 Popular vote 11 9 Percentage 19.30% 15.79% Swing ▼10.7 pp ▼44.2 pp
Vorsitzender before election Patrick Renwick Abeldane National Union Vorsitzender after election N/A, later Patrick Renwick N/A, later National Royalists - The Green Union

The 21st Abeldane federal election took place from 27 until 29 June 2020; 11 out of 13 seats in the Reichsversammlung, as well as a number of seats in state legislatures were renewed. It was the 9th legislative election in the Empire since the introduction of direct elections to the Reichsversammlung.

The National Union (ANU) sought to regain its majority in the Reichsversammlung after gradually losing seats since the previous election. The Party of Royalists and Greens (PRG) sought to gain a majority after merging Royalists and Social Ecology. Liberty Front and the newly formed Pirate League both had a single seat, and both parties formed the electoral alliance Concordia.

The election resulted in major gains for Concordia, especially the Pirate League, which went from being one of the two smallest parties in the Reichsversammlung to winning a plurality and over 40% of the vote. The Liberty Front came second in the vote, with nearly 25%. On the other hand, the ruling ANU saw its popular support plummet over 40 percentage points since the December election, resulting in the resignation of its leader Patrick Renwick from the Vorsitzendership and triggering a snap executive election.

Background

Since December 2018, the elections to the Reichsversammlung and the executive have been staggered after over a year of holding them together. As states became more active and independent from the federal government, states have started to hold elections in conjunction with either the executive or legislative federal elections.

Electoral system

Members of the Reichsversammlung are divided into two: elected members and directly appointed members. Under the constitution, it provides two appointed seats in the Reichsversammlung. One seat is held ex officio by the Ervecysarich, currently Stephen Freayth, and one seat is directly appointed by the Monarch and is called the Imperial Representative. The rest of the seats are directly elected through the election.

Party-list proportional representation system is used for the electable seats and the Droop quota is used for allocating seats to parties. Each parties get to submit a list of members who wish to be elected in the Reichsversammlung and must not exceed the total number of elected seats. Members under the party list are ordered accordingly at the discretion of the party and they have to belong to the same party as their party list.

Currently, there are ten electable seats and the constitution allows for diminishing or increasing these seats. Seats were last increased or diminished in November 2019, where the current 11+2 seats were implemented.

Campaign

Concordia (Liberty Front and Pirate League)

As part an electoral agreement, the Liberty Front (centrist, libertarian) and the newly formed Pirate League (left-wing, advocating pirate politics) created the Concordia alliance. The two parties campaigned in a concerted effort, as their imagery and messages were delivered jointly and with previous agreement. However, both parties still presented their electoral manifestos separately.

The Pirate League ran on a platform of policies commonly associated to pirate politics, namely the promotion of e-democracy, greater transparency (including the use of open source software for Abeldane affairs), and freedom of information. It also supported environmental policies and further protection of Abelden's natural and protected areas, increased political attributions for the Imperial legislature, furthering the economic development of the Empire, and an increased ceremonial role for the Abeldane constitutional monarchy.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Reichsversammlung.

Name			Ideologies	Leader	Dec. 2019 result		Seats as of June 2020
					Votes (%)	Seats
	ANU	Abeldane National Union Abeldänisches Nationale Union	Nationalism	Patrick Renwick	60%	8 / 13	6 / 13
	LF	Liberty Front Front für Freiheit	Liberalism	Edward Daniels	10%	2 / 13	1 / 13
	PRG	Party of Royalists and Greens Partei der Königstreuen und die Grüne	Royalism	Nicolas Millan	30%	3 / 13	4 / 13
	PL	Pirate League Piratenbund	Pirate politics	Connor Stumperth	New	0 / 13	1 / 13

Results

Seats by Alliance

↓
9	2	1	1
Concordia	PRG	ANU	Ind.

Seats by Party

↓
5	4	2	1	1
Pirate League	Liberty Front	PRG	ANU	Ind.

Reichsversammlung – Turnout 95,00%

Party			Votes	%	Swing (pp)	Seats	Change (seats)
	Pirate League		23	40,35	+40,35	5	▲ 5
	Liberty Front		14	24,60	+14,60	3	▲ 2
	Party of Royalists and Greens		11	19,30	-10,70	2	▼ 2
	Abeldane National Union		9	15,80	-44,20	1	▼ 5
Total			57	100.00	–	11	▲ 0
Invalid/blank votes			0	0.0	0	–	–
Registered voters/turnout			60	100%	+9.39	–	–
Source: Reichswahlkommission Official Report

Popular Vote
Pirate League			40.35%
Liberty Front			24.6%
Green Royalists			19.3%
National Union			15.8%

Reichsversammlung Seats (electable)
Pirate League			45.45%
Liberty Front			27.27%
Green Royalists			18.18%
National Union			9.09%

Reichsversammlung Seats (electable)
Pirate League			38.46%
Liberty Front			30.77%
Green Royalists			15.38%
National Union			7.69%

Members

Previous MP	Party		Took office	Elected MP	Party		Took office	Seat #
Elected
Henry Twain		National Union	29 May 2020	Connor Stumperth		Pirate League	4 February 2019	1
Andrew Irons		National Union	10 February 2020	Andrew Irons		Liberty Front	10 February 2020	2
Vacant		National Union	3 June 2020	Ashley Jaax		Pirate League	7 September 2019	3
Patrick Renwick		National Union	12 October 2019	Patrick Renwick		National Union	12 October 2019	4
Alex White		Green Royalists	27 April 2020	Keenan Clough		Pirate League	Not yet sworn in	5
James Frisch		National Union	1 January 2020	Chase Nanatovich		Pirate League	Not yet sworn in	6
Nicolas Millan		Green Royalists	6 January 2019	Nicolas Millan		Green Royalists	6 January 2019	7
Ashley Jaax		Green Royalists	7 September 2019	Newton von Uberquie		Green Royalists	Not yet sworn in	8
Edward Daniels		Liberty Front	7 January 2019	Edward Daniels		Liberty Front	7 January 2019	9
Thomas Bainbridge		Green Royalists	25 February 2020	Tarik Karjasari		Pirate League	Not yet sworn in	10
Zabëlle Skye		National Union	16 November 2019	Brandon Wu		Liberty Front	Not yet sworn in	11
Appointed
Connor Stumperth		Pirate League	4 February 2019	James Frisch		Liberty Front	Not yet sworn in	12
Stephen Freayth		Independent	16 June 2018	Stephen Freayth		Independent	16 June 2018	13

Aftermath

Shortly after the announcement of the results by the Reichswahlkommission, Vorsitzender and ANU leader Patrick Renwick announced his effective resignation, stating that support for the government had "evaporated and gone with the wind". Since the position of Stellvertreter has been vacant since the passing of the last officeholder, Nicholas Randouler, on 3 June 2020, a snap executive election must now be held, two months earlier than anticipated in the established electoral calendar.

Opinion polls

Polynomial regression of polling for the June 2020 Abeldane federal election

Legislative

Pollster	Conducted	Sample	P ANU	LF	ASE	PRC	PL	Other	Lead
					PRG
L'Sydunche	20-26 June 2020	17	17.6%	29.4%	17.6%		35.3%	-	5.9%
L'Sydunche	17-19 June 2020	11	18.2%	36.4%	18.2%		27.3%	-	9.1%
L'Sydunche	15-16 June 2020	16	12.5%	31.3%	25.0%		31.3%	-	Tie
L'Sydunche	5-7 June 2020	15	13.3%	33.3%	13.3%		40.0%	-	6.7%
L'Sydunche	29-31 May 2020	10	30.0%	50.0%	20.0%		-	-	20.0%
L'Sydunche	27 May 2020	17	11.8%	64.7%	23.5%		-	-	41.2%
L'Sydunche	24 May 2020	17	29.4%	58.8%	11.8%		-	-	29.4%
L'Sydunche	1 May 2020	26	30.8%	38.5%	15.4%	15.4%	-	-	8%
L'Sydunche	28 April 2020	11	18.2%	27.3%	27.3%	27.3%	-	-	Tie