Abeldane federal election, June 2019

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Abeldane federal election, June 2019

← December 2018 27 - 29 June 2019 December 2019 →

10 of 12 seats in the Reichsversammlung
7 seats needed for a majority
Registered44 12%
Turnout90.61% (32.61 pp)
  First party Second party
  SF bubble.png T Karjasary bubble.png
Leader Stephen Freayth Tarik Kârjasary
Party Populares Social Ecology
Leader since June 2018 January 2019
Leader's seat 12th 6th
Last election 7 + 1 seats, 62.1% 2 seats, 24.1%
Seats before 7 + 1 1
Seats won 5 + 1 2
Seat change 2 1
Popular vote 19 9
Percentage 47.5% 22.5%
Swing 14.6 pp 1.6 pp

  Third party Fourth party
  110px Millan bubblehead.png
Leader Edward Daniels Nicolas Millan
Party Liberty Front Royalists and Cooperatism
Leader since September 2018 June 2019
Leader's seat 11th 7th
Last election 1 + 1 seats, 17.5% 0 seats, 0%
Seats before 2 + 1 0
Seats won 2 + 1 1
Seat change 0
Popular vote 7 5
Percentage 17.5% 12.5%
Swing 3.9 pp 12.5 pp

Vorsitzender before election

Edward Daniels
Liberty Front

Vorsitzender after election

Edward Daniels
Liberty Front

The 19th Abeldane federal election took place from the 27th through the 29th of June 2019, including legislative elections to the Reichsversammlung and state elections.

Following the reforms in 2018, elections for the executive and the legislative were staggered and the term for the Reichsversammlung were extended from 3 months to 6 months. Populares is currently defending its absolute majority of 8 seats whilst the party of the Vorsitzender Edward Daniels, Liberty Front, is currently aiming to increase its seats. Social Ecology is defending its lone seat and originally had 2 seats until the resignation of Artemis Langford.

Populares lost its absolute majority, winning only 5 elected seats and 1 appointed seat, and thus produced the first hung parliament in over a year. Social Ecology managed to regain their lost seat from Artemis Langford and won 2 seats. Liberty Front retained its seats although the seat of Connor Stumperth was nearly lost during the allocation. Royalists and Cooperatism saw their first ever elected seat in the RVS since June 2018 and having participated in an election for the first time.

Daniels managed to retain his coalition and coalition partners decided to include the PRC into the coalition and released the new cabinet ministers on 1 July 2019. Turnout was the highest since April 2018 in legislative elections and saw the largest percentage point increase in history, with 32.61 p.p, and was even higher compared to the largest percentage point decrease in history, which was in December 2018 with 31.1 p.p..

Background

The Reichsversammlung originally had a four-month limit on its legislative term until the 2018 Constitution extended the legislative term to six months. It was also decided that the executive and legislative elections were to be staggered and the last election held where both were held was in December 2018. Ever since then, the first only executive election since June 2017 was held on March 2019, where it saw Edward Daniels of Liberty Front elected as Vorsitzender and Charlotte Katrinsdottir of Populares as Stellvertreter.

The current legislative term, the 10th Reichsversammlung, has overseen two executive elections and two Vorsitzenders and Stellvertreters. Under the Kârjasary ministry, a grand coalition of all the parties were formed and the first since Henry Twain. It oversaw reforms within the government and the Empire in general. After the March 2019 election, Edward Daniels was elected into the Vorsitzendership and retained the grand coalition formed by Kârjasary. The Daniels ministry retained most of the ministers under Kârjasary's term and remains to this day the current composition.

Electoral system

Members of the Reichsversammlung are divided into two: elected members and directly appointed members. Under the constitution, it provides two appointed seats in the Reichsversammlung. One seat is held ex officio by the Ervecysarich, currently Stephen Freayth, and one seat is directly appointed by the Monarch and is called the Imperial Representative. The rest of the seats are directly elected through the election.

Party-list proportional representation system is used for the electable seats and the Droop quota is used for allocating seats to parties. Each parties get to submit a list of members who wish to be elected in the Reichsversammlung and must not exceed the total number of elected seats. Members under the party list are ordered accordingly at the discretion of the party and they have to belong to the same party as their party list.

Currently, there are ten electable seats and the constitution allows for diminishing or increasing these seats. Seats were last increased or diminished on December 2018, where the current 10+2 seats were implemented.

Campaign

Populares

Liberty Front

Social Ecology

Behemoth

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Reichsversammlung.

Name Ideologies Leader Dec. 2018 result Current seats
Votes (%) Seats
P Populares
Populares – Abeldänisches Volkspartei
Liberal conservatism Stephen Freayth 62.1%
8 / 12
8 / 12
ASE Abeldane Social Ecology
Abeldänisches Sozialökologie – Die Grüne Arbeitspartei
Social ecology Tarik Kârjasary 24.1%
2 / 12
1 / 12
LF Liberty Front
Front für Freiheit
Liberalism Edward Daniels 17.5%
2 / 12
3 / 12

Results

6 3 2 1
Populares Liberty Front ASE PRC
Party Votes % Swing Seats +/-
  Populares - Abeldane People's Party 19 47.50 -14.6 5 + 1 2
  Abeldane Social Ecology - The Green Labour Party 9 22.50 -1.6 2 1
  Liberty Front 7 17.50 +3.9 2 + 1
  Party of Royalists and Cooperatism 5 12.50 +12.5 1 1
Total 40 100.00 12
Invalid/blank votes 0 0 0 N/A
Registered voters/turnout 44 90.61 +32.61 N/A
Source: [ Reichswahlkommission Official Report]


Popular Vote
Populares
  
47.5%
Social Ecology
  
22.5%
Liberty Front
  
17.5%
Royalists
  
12.5%
Reichsversammlung Seats (electable)
Populares
  
55.5%
Social Ecology
  
22.2%
Liberty Front
  
22.2%
Royalists
  
11.1%
Reichsversammlung Seats (all)
Populares
  
50.00%
Liberty Front
  
25.00%
Social Ecology
  
16.67%
Royalists
  
8.33%

Members

Previous MP Party Elected MP Party Took office Seat #
Elected
Nicholas Kaos Populares Nicholas Kaos Populares 18 July 2017 1
Max Pollack Populares Max Pollack Populares 4 May 2018 2
Nicholas Randouler Populares Nicholas Randouler Populares 16 November 2018 3
Charlotte Katrínsdóttir Populares Charlotte Katrínsdóttir Populares 2 December 2018 4
Richard Hytholoday Populares Sian von Uberquie Social Ecology 1 July 2019 5
Tarik Kârjasary Social Ecology Jessika Ross Social Ecology 1 July 2019 6
Nicolas Millan Populares Nicolas Millan Royalists 6 January 2019 7
Austin Jaax Liberty Front Austin Jaax Liberty Front 11 January 2019 8
Connor Stumperth Liberty Front Connor Stumperth Liberty Front 4 February 2019 9
Nicholas Fisher Populares Nicholas Fisher Populares 6 June 2019 10
Appointed
Edward Daniels Liberty Front Edward Daniels Liberty Front 7 January 2019 11
Stephen Freayth Populares Stephen Freayth Populares 16 June 2018 12

Opinion polls

Polynomial regression of polling for the December 2019 Abeldane federal election

Legislative

Pollster Release Sample P LF ASE ALNA PRC B Other Lead
L'Sydunche 22-24 April 2019 11 54.5% 27.3% 18.2% 0% - - - 27.2%
L'Sydunche 25-27 April 2019 13 53.8% 23.1% 23.1% 0% - - - 30.7%
L'Sydunche 27-30 April 2019 11 54.5% 27.3% 18.2% 0% - - - 27.2%
L'Sydunche 1-3 May 2019 11 45.5% 27.3% 27.3% 0% - - - 18.2%
L'Sydunche 4-7 May 2019 12 58.3% 16.7% 16.7% 8.3% - - - 41.6%
L'Sydunche 8-9 May 2019 16 56.3% 18.8% 18.8% 6.3% - - - 37.5%
L'Sydunche 10-11 May 2019 11 54.5% 18.2% 27.3% 0% - - - 27.2%
L'Sydunche 12-13 May 2019 9 55.6% 22.2% 22.2% 0% - - - 33.4%
L'Sydunche 14-15 May 2019 11 45.5% 27.3% 27.3% 0% - - - 18.2%
L'Sydunche 16-17 May 2019 12 41.7% 33.3% 16.7% 8.3% - - - 8.4%
L'Sydunche 18-19 May 2019 14 42.9% 21.4% 14.3% 21.4% - - - 21.5%
L'Sydunche 20-22 May 2019 12 41.7% 25.0% 16.7% 16.7% - - - 16.7%
L'Sydunche 23-25 May 2019 11 45.5% 9.1% 36.4% 9.1% - - - 9.1%
L'Sydunche 27-29 May 2019 21 57.1% 23.8% 14.3% 4.8% - - - 33.3%
L'Sydunche 1 June 2019 17 47.1% 17.6% 23.5% - - 11.8% - 23.6%
L'Sydunche 2 June 2019 21 52.4% 19.0% 9.5% - - 19.0% - 33.4%
L'Sydunche 3-4 June 2019 23 43.5% 13.0% 17.4% - 8.7% 17.4% - 26.1%
L'Sydunche 5-6 June 2019 24 50.0% 16.7% 12.5% - 4.2% 16.7% - 33.3%
L'Sydunche 7-8 June 2019 17 52.9% 5.9% 11.8% - 11.8% 17.6% - 35.3%
L'Sydunche 9-10 June 2019 34 47.1% 11.8% 11.8% - 2.9% 26.5% - 20.6%
L'Sydunche 11-12 June 2019 31 32.3% 12.9% 16.1% - 9.7% 29.0% - 3.3%