Sabioveronese general election, 2018

Sabioveronese general election, 2018

20 May 2018
All 23 seats of the Parliament 12 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	▼89.47%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Apollo Cerwyn Noa Dargany Shounn Virny Party Democratic Party (Sabia and Verona) Liberals (Sabia and Verona) National Artists' Guild Leader since 10 May 2016 5 June 2017 14 March 2018 Leader's seat Alios Alios Gonn Last election Did not contest 10 seats, 52.9% 4 seats; 17.6% Seats won 11 10 2 Seat change ▲11 0 ▼1 Popular vote 24 22 5 Percentage 47.05% 43.14% 9.80% Swing New party ▼9.76 pp ▼7.80 pp
PM before election Noa Dargany Liberals (Sabia and Verona) Prime Minister after election Noa Dargany Liberals (Sabia and Verona)

A general election was held in Sabia and Verona on 20 May 2017 to elect all 23 members of the atanói, the national parliament.

It was the ninth general election in Sabia and Verona and the second since the adoption of the current Constitution. It was also the first election since 2015 in which the Parliament had a number of members other than 20, as the unicameral legislature was expanded prior the election to increase proportionality.

The Democratic Party was the clearest winner of the election, gaining 11 seats (having previously counted with six), but still fell one seat short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government, resulting in a hung parliament. The Liberal party, in government since 2017, lost some support but kept their number of seats intact; the result, however, was still proportional taking the expansion of the atanói in account. The worst performance was that of the National Artists' Guild, which lost two seats. The Artists' poor result was one of the reasons for its dissolution only two months after the election.

Electoral system

Since 2017, following the adoption of a new constitution, the Sabioveronese Parliament has used a party-list proportional representation system with two multi-member legislative districts corresponding to the geographical boundaries of the City of Alios and the Gonn Region, the two administrative regions of Metropolitan SiV. Following an amendment to the 2017 electoral law approved in January 2018, the Parliament will consist of 23 seats; 10 for Alios and 13 for Gonn.

Background

Political parties

Distribution of seats in the Sabioveronese Parliament after the 2017 election.

The Liberals are the largest party in Parliament at the moment, and the current ruling party of the Kingdom. The incumbent Prime Minister, Noa Dargany, as well as her entire cabinet, are all Liberal MPs. The Liberals are centre-right classical liberals and support political pahunism. The Liberal Party was once known as the Unity Party, and is the oldest political force in the Kingdom. The Liberals count with 9 seats in the 3rd Parliament, after getting 53% of the vote in the 2017 election, a seat short of a majority.

The Democratic Party is the second-largest party in the 3rd Parliament. It's the newest party, founded in November 2017 as a merger between the Left Alliance and a faction of the National Artists' Guild. It's a left-leaning nationalist, statist and environmentalist party. The Democratic leader, Apollo Cerwyn, is the current Leader of the Opposition in Sabia and Verona. In the 2017 election, the Left Alliance secured 6 seats and nearly 30% of the vote; these were all kept when the Democratic Party was formed, in addition to another seat that formerly belonged to the Artists.

The National Artists' Guild is the smallest party in the Kingdom. In the 2017 election they secured 4 seats and 17% of the vote. They were once the largest party in Sabia and Verona, and its former leader, Shounn Virny, holds the record as the longest-serving Prime Minister in the Kingdom. After several controversies involving Virny and other Artist politicians, the party has fallen out of grace. It's a social democratic and nationalist party.

2017 election and government formation

The 2017 election resulted in major gains for the Liberals and the Left, and outstanding losses for Artists, who lost nearly 20 pp and two seats. The Liberals were the largest party both in Gonn and Alios, getting over 50% of the popular vote, but still failed to reach a majority with only 10 seats. Immediately after the election's results were released by the Electoral Commission, the Left ruled out forming any coalitions with the Artists or the Liberals. The Liberals then became the most likely to form a government, with Liberal leader Andrew Blackhorse being mentioned as favorite to become PM.

Prime Minister Virny assumed responsibility for the Guild's poor performance, asking the Sabioveronese people not to blame Artist leader Snø Jens. Shortly after election day, Virny pointed out on his Twitter account that the Liberals' government formation talks were being headed by Deputy Leader Noa Dargany, instead of Blackhorse. The next day, the Liberal leadership revealed Dargany was their pick to become Prime Minister, as Blackhorse intended to step down from the party's leadership in the near future. On 19 May 2017, Dargany received the King's mandate to form the 9th government of Sabia and Verona, which was confirmed by the 3rd Parliament on 22 May.

Opinion polling

Graphical summary of opinion polls conducted

Pollster	Release date	J	R / HG	DSN	Other	Lead
Isadoran University	16-03-2018	43%	48%	9%	-	5%
Shounn Virny becomes Leader of the National Artists' Guild (14 March)
Isadoran University	04-03-2018	41%	50%	9%	-	9%
Isadoran University	23-02-2018	43%	49%	7%	-	6%
Isadoran University	14-02-2018	45%	48%	6%	-	3%
Isadoran University	10-02-2018	45%	45%	9%	-	tie
Isadoran University	03-02-2018	42%	45%	13%	-	3%
The SiV Phonograph	21-01-2018	45%	42%	13%	-	3%
Isadoran University	17-01-2018	45%	41%	14%	-	4%
Isadoran University	07-01-2018	43%	39%	18%	-	4%
Isadoran University	02-01-2018	42%	37%	21%	-	5%
The SiV Phonograph	21-12-2017	44%	37%	19%	-	7%
Isadoran University	18-12-2017	46%	38%	15%	-	8%
Left Alliance and Socialist Caucus merge to form the Democratic Party
Isadoran University	10-11-2017	50%	38%	12%	-	12%
Isadoran University	1-10-2017	53%	33%	13%	-	20%
2017 general election	14-05-2017	53%	29%	18%	-	24%

Results

Distribution of seats in the Sabioveronese Parliament after the 2018 election.

Distribution of seats in the 4th Parliament, following the merger of the National Artists' Guild into the Liberal bloc.

The election resulted in major gains for the Democratic Party, which won 11 seats in Parliament (counting the seats the Left Alliance and the Socialist Caucus previously had). The downward trend for the National Artists' Guild continued, as they won only 2 seats.

Party		Leader	Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Democratic Party	Apollo Cerwyn	24	47.05%	11	New party
	Liberals	Noa Dargany	22	43.14%	10	0
	National Artists' Guild	Shounn Virny	5	9.80%	2	▼1

Popular vote
Democratic Party			47.05%
Liberals			43.14%
National Artists' Guild			9.80%

Parliamentary apportionment
Democratic Party			47.8%
Liberals			43.3%
National Artists' Guild			8.7%

Elected MPs

District	MP	Party
Alios	Andrew Blackhorse		Liberal
	Apollo Cerwyn		Democrat
	Narcissus Clyne		Democrat
	Noa Dargany		Liberal
	Simor de Jena		Liberal
	Pomme-Gabrielle Gauvier		Democrat
	Dímeros Grenouille		Liberal
	Snø Jens		Democrat
	Andreina Rossini		Democrat
	Donnel Seaworth		Liberal
Gonn	Qian An		Liberal
	Franxêska Bagos		Liberal
	Harmê Bertram		Artist
	Félix Gauvier		Democrat
	Kastor Gevras Drigy		Democrat
	Soraya Hreti		Democrat
	Hierba Kebragi		Democrat
	Palomène Lockhart		Liberal
	Shassel Marlaryen		Liberal
	Divedrin Noarri		Democrat
	Ryam Piper		Democrat
	Emmanuel Starlynn		Liberal
	Shounn Virny		Artist

Aftermath and government formation

As no party received an outright majority, either of the larger parties could have been poised to form a government. The National Artists' Guild, though having lost an MP and performing its worst since the party's formation, became kingmaker as its two MPs would have given both Democrats and Liberals the necessary majority. In the end, Shounn Virny resolved on renewing the confidence and supply agreement with the governing Liberals. On 28 May 2018, the 4th Parliament was inaugurated and Dargany's proposal for the 10th government of Sabia and Verona was approved.