May 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election

May 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election
All 17 seats of the Grand Senate; 6 first-class seats; 4 needed for a Class I majority; 11 second-class seats; 6 needed for a Class II majority
Chancellor before election; Sir Christoph Billung; ND	Chancellor after election ; Seán O'Neill; PRO

The 21st Grand Senate election of the Empire of Elysium occurred between 29 May 2024 until 1 June 2024. It determined the composition of both classes of the Grand Senate. Significant constitutional reforms will be in effect due to the reforms to the electoral system brought by the Codex Magnus Imperii and the "Elections Amendment, 2024".

The election was also significant as both the Chancellor, Elliot Doe of the National Democrats, and Opposition Leader Adam Johnston, of the Progressives have retired from leadership positions within their parties before the election. The National Democrats elected Christoph Billung to succeed Chancellor Doe, and the Progressive Party elected Seán O'Neill to succeed Adam Johnston. Additionally this election will also be significant as the leader of the two largest parties are both members of the Catholic Church and identifying as a sexual orientation that is not hetrosexual, with Billung identifying as 'Same-Sex Attracted' and O'Neill identifying as Bisexual. In addition Johann Kümmel, leader of the Rhinoceros Party is likewise a member of the Catholic Church.

Following the ratification of the Codex, this election will be the first of such that will see the first class and second class Grand Senators and the Prince Imperial elected in the same election. This election would have been the first election since the May 2020 Grand Senate elections where there was no major party leader candidate from Elyria, however as Hilton has merged into Elyria due to constitutional reforms Billung is now considered a resident of Elyria.

Election date

The political party primaries occurred on 18 March, 2024, with campaigning opening on 1 March, 2024. The primary elections lasted forty-eight hours. The general election occurred on 29 May 2024 and lasted for 48 hours.

Voting eligibility

Individuals who are eligible to vote do not have to perform any form of registration in the Empire of Elysium. To be eligible to vote an individual must be at least sixteen years old, and must have been a citizen of Elysium for at least two months. Citizens who meet the qualifications to vote may also contest the election.

Background

Originally the next election was scheduled to take place on 18 January 2024, but the Crown elected to delay the election. According to the Election Organization and Election Act. 2023 the election was legally expected to occur on 16 May but that is expected to be delayed to the end of the month to allow for constitutional reforms to be enacted prior to the election occurring.

In the previous election the incumbent Progressives, led by Chancellor Adam Johnston, lost to the National Democrats, led by former Chancellor Elliot Doe. Prior to the election, the Progressive Ministry was met with a well organized and hostile National Democratic opposition following Adam Johnston's surprising election wherein he defeated National Democrat Thomas Bainbridge. After the election Elliot Doe, who had previously led the party, suggested that he return to leadership, and Thomas Bainbridge take over as the party's deputy leader. Initially, Thomas Bainbridge agreed to this, and campaigned enthusiastically with Doe. Bainbridge spoke at the National Democratic convention, saying: "We need a Chancellor with this quality, which I why I am endorsing Sir Elliot Doe to become Chancellor of the Empire." However, in early August Bainbridge suddenly left the National Democrats, resigning as Deputy Leader, and announced the creation of the Agrarian Party. In addition to Bainbridge a number of moderates in the Progressive Party also joined in the founding of the new Progressive Party.

Despite Bainbridge's sudden departure from the party, the National Democrats managed to maintain most of their campaign momentum and went on to win the election.

Following the election the Empire fell into what has been regarded as a state of inactivity. The government and opposition alike, alongside the Crown, did not take to the matters of governing very seriously during this period. Due to this, the Crown decided to delay the January elections, and openly discussed the possibility of downsizing many elements of the government. Some activity did arise due to the refusal of Commonwealth leader Eugene Smith to follow the constitutional order, and thus was subsequently impeached by the Grand Senate. The process was particularly divisive as the incumbent Chancellor, Elliot Doe, confronted Eugene Smith of his misdeeds before the cabinet, following an attack on the Chancellor from Eugene Smith, and then dismissed the leader. The impeachment was passed unanimously in the Grand Senate, and after refusing to present himself before a trial the Imperial Council voted to convict Eugene Smith. Eugene Smith's impeachment and subsequent conviction is one of the few successful examples of impeachment in the history of the Empire.

Campaign

The election season began with the announcement that Seán O'Neill would run for the leadership of the Progressive-Labor Party. In the months prior to the announcement, O'Neill had become the de facto public face of the Progressive movement due to the declining activity of the de jure Progressive Leader Adam Johnston and much of the 'Old Guard' of the Progressive Party. It was expected that Elliot Doe would remain as the National Democrat Leader into the election however on 3 March 2024, Doe announced his retirement from the leadership of the National Democrats and candidacy for it's presidency. On the same day Christoph Billung was formally announced to be running for the leadership of the National Democrats.

In order to prevent a messy primary election and to prevent the only man in the Progressive-Labor Party that could challenge him, O'Neill convinced Adam Johnston to not run for re-election but to run for the Secretary-Generalship of the Party. On 10 March 2024, National Democrat Grand Senator Maximilian Meister announced that he would defect from the National Democrats to the Progressives and run for the leadership of the Progressive-Labor Party.

The announcement of Meister's campaign was not met positively, with neither the incumbent or incoming Leaders of both the National Democrats and Progressive-Labor Party commenting upon it. Four days before the primaries, Meister announced to the Progressives that he would instead contest the Deputy Leadership of the Progressive-Labor Party whenever O'Neill called for Progressives to run for that office.

The primaries occurred on 16 March 2024, with polls closing on 18 March 2024. O'Neill and Billung were elected to the Progressive and National Democrat Leadership respectively, Thomas Bainbridge was re-elected as the Agrarian Leader and Meister was elected as Progressive Deputy Leader. Following the primary, David Augustus became Billung's effective running mate and de facto National Democrat Deputy Leader although has not been formally installed in such position.

During March, O'Neill and Johann Kümmel, the Rhinoceros Party Leader engaged in a tongue and cheek public argument where each of the two Leaders would take the other's poster, deface it with a cross and write some form of message. By the end of the 'argument', O'Neill had threatened to 'touch' Kümmel, while Kümmel threatened to murder O'Neill. It is thought that this event set the tone for the campaign.

On 8 May 2024, Parliament was officially dissolved, on the same day Billung, Bainbridge and O'Neill participated in a party leadership debate on 8 May 2024 hearing questions from the Electoral Commission and from the general populace. The debate was notable for it's civility with the three leaders barely disagreeing, laying the groundwork for the national union government formed following the election.

On 13 May 2024, the Codex Magnus Imperii was officially enacted via referendum, on the same day Doe resigned as Chancellor with Billung replacing him as Chancellor. On the same day, the nominations process for the Class I elections began.

O'Neill-Bainbridge Deal

Following fluctuations in the polls, in April and May 2024 then-Leader of the Opposition Seán O'Neill separately contacted the National Democratic Leader Christoph Billung and Agrarian Leader Thomas Bainbridge about the possibility of forming a coalition government in the event of a hung Grand Senate. O'Neill's meeting with Billung ended with Billung outright rejecting O'Neill's suggestions.

By 31 May 2024, while polling was open, O'Neill and Bainbridge finalised their deal pending the actual results. Following the release of the results, many contemporaries assumed that Bainbridge would enter into coalition with a Second Billung Ministry or form an outright coalition government given Bainbridge's history as a former National Democratic Leader and Chancellor.

The agreement, when it was released, drew immediate surprise and criticism, as it was argued that the National Democratic Party held a greater control over the Grand Senate given their Class I majority.

Whenever Robert II's pre-prepared post-election address (which called for the Chancellor to appoint the leader of the second largest party as the Deputy Chancellor), the deal had to be re-arranged to accommodate for a National Democratic co-Deputy Chancellor.

Grand Senate at dissolution

The results of the 2023 III Grand Senate election are given below, alongside the current numbers in the Grand Senate. Numbers have changed due to the defection of Gabriel Sebastian from the National Democrats to the Progressives, additionally personnel within the National Democrat delegation has changed due to the resignation of Maximillian Meiser, the impeachment of Eugene Smith, and Janusz Mazanek.

Affiliation		Members
Affiliation		Elected in 2023 III	Current	Change
	National Democrats	8	7	▼ 1
	Progressive	6	7	▲ 1
	Agrarians	1	1	0
	Rhinoceros	0	0	0
Total		15	15	0
Vacant		0	0	0
Government Majority		1	0	▼ 1

Opinion polling

A total of five polls have been held so far. As of April 2024 the Unionist Corporation stating they plan to conduct two to three more before the general election.

Poll Title	Pollster	Client	PR	ND	AP	Lead
Poll Title	Pollster	Client				Lead
March 2024	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	38.46%	46.15%	15.38%	7.69
April 2024 I	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	58.33%	25.0%	16.67%	33.3%
NT polling (2)	The National Tribune	Sir Elliot Doe	33.3%	55.6%	11.1%	22.3%
April 2024 II	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	38.5%	38.5%	23.1%	Tie
May 2024 I	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	53.3%	46.7%	0%	6.6%
May 2024 II	May 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election		43.6%	43.6%	12.8%	Tie

Aftermath

The leadup to the results of the elections was noted by commentators to be the most tense buildup to election results in the nations history.. There was an unprecidented public discussion regarding the release of the results at Midnight Eastern Time, due to timezone differences, Progressive Leader Seán O'Neill (who lives in the United Kingdom, a 5 hour difference) made numerous comments regarding his usage of coffee to remain awake.

Following the polls being closed and the results being announced, there was a public row between Foreign Minister and Agrarian Leader Thomas Bainbridge and Progressive Deputy Leader Maximilian Meister at around 00:23.

At 00:31, the results were officially announced with no clear winner in the Second Class, but a National Democratic majority in the First Class. It became clear to the Progressive and National Democratic leadership that they required to work with the Agrarian Party to form a government. At 12:36, O'Neill announced that the Agrarians and Progressives had agreed upon a coalition deal (which had been pre-organised) which came to the surprise of many within the Empire.

By 00:39, Robert II had discredited the Progressive-Agrarian coalition as the National Democrats would have the first attempt to form a government following an election and secondly that the confidence agreement between the Progressives and the Agrarians depended upon the only Agrarian Class II Grand Senator, who by that time was asleep. By 00:42, National Democrat de facto Deputy Leader Alexander Constantine was inquiring about legal action against the Progressives and Agrarians for their early coalition announcement.

At 00:44, Robert II made an address calling for the creation of a coalition between the two largest parties in the Grand Senate at the same time, Meister resigned as Deputy Progressive Party Leader as he failed to gain a Grand Senate seat. At 00:46, O'Neill said that he would not appoint Billung as Deputy Chancellor as he had made an arrangement with Bainbridge causing continued uncertainty. At 00:48, former Chancellor Doe called on O'Neill to go into coalition with Billung.

At 00:49, Bainbridge invited Robert II, O'Neill, Billung and himself to negotiate terms for a new government. During the negotiations, Christoph Billung was reportedly offered the role of Deputy Chancellor and Commerce Minister. However by 13:56, Billung publicly announced that he was conceding the election and declined O'Neill's offer of the Deputy Chancellorship.

The 21st Grand Senate opened for oaths and affirmations at 11:08 on 3 June 2024. At around 12:05, Robert II appeared within the Grand Senate chamber and made his Speech from the Throne which was confirmed at 3:01. Seán O'Neill was then formally commissioned as Chancellor at 3:04 with other ministers being commissioned at 6:01.

Results

Results of the 21st Grand Senate Election
Political Party	Leader	Class II candidates						Class II votes			Class I Candidates					Class I votes
Political Party	Leader	Nominated	Elected	Of total	Gained	Lost^[1]	Net	Count	Proportion of Total	Change in Proportion	Nominated	Elected	Of total	Gained	Net	Count	Proportion of Total
Progressive Party	Seán O'Neill	8^[2]	5	45.4%	0	1	-1	17	43.6%	+7.2%	2	0	0%	0	0	38	16.8%
National Democratic Party	Christoph Billung	10	5	45.4%	0	1	-3	17	43.6%	-12%	4	4	66.6 %	4	+4	134	59.3%
Agrarian Party	Thomas Bainbridge	3	1	9%	0	0	0	5	12.%	+4%	1	1	16.6%	1	+1	16	7.1%
Rhinoceros Party	Johann Kümmel	The Rhinoceros Party did not participate in the Class II election									1	1	16.6%	1	+1	38	16.8%
Independents		No Class II registered independents									1^[3]	0	0%	0	0	10	4.5%

References

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