September 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election

September 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election

24 - 25 September 2024
All 11 second-class seats of the Grand Senate 6 needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Candidate Sir Alexander Constantine Sir Seán O'Neill Based Baddie Party National Democrats Progressive Rhinoceros Party Leader's seat Did not stand Did not stand Did not stand Last election 5, 46.2% 5, 43.6% Did not contest Seats won 6 4 1 Seat change ▲ 1 ▼ 1 ▲ 1 Popular vote 12 10 4 Percentage 40% 38.5% 15.4% Swing ▼ 2.6% ▼ 5.1% ▲ 15.4%
Chancellor before election Seán O'Neill PRO Chancellor after election TBA

The 22nd Grand Senate election of the Empire of Elysium is occurred between 24 until 25 September 2024. It was the first election under the Codex Magnus Imperii to exclusively select the Second Class of the Grand Senate.

Chancellor Seán O'Neill attempted to secure a second term as Chancellor following his victory in the May 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election with the newly elected National Democratic Leader Alexander Constantine attempting to secure a majority within the Second Class of the Grand Senate. This election marked the return of the Rhinoceros Party to mainstream politics following Based Baddie expected to return to sole leadership of the Rhinoceros Party and would markedBaddie's first time leading the Rhinoceros Party into a senatorial election since October 2020.

The election was the first Senatorial election, where no Elyrian has led a party in the Grand Senate since May 2020. In addition election marks the first time since the September 2022 election where Thomas Bainbridge was not the leader of a party contesting the election, following the dissolution of the Agrarian Party in July 2024.

Election date

According to the Codex Magnus Imperii, the Second Class of the Grand Senate must be dismissed for an election every four months. As the 20th Grand Senate was dissolved on 8 May 2024, the 21st Grand Senate must be dissolved no later than 8 September 2024, following a 21-day campaigning period polls are expected to open on 30 September 2024 and close on 1 October 2024. On 30 August 2024, Grand Emperor Robert II announced that the election would occur between 24 and 25 September 2024 with the Second Class due to be dissolved on 1 September 2024.

All Elysiumite citizens, over the age of 16 who have been citizens prior to 24 July 2024 will be eligible to vote.

Background

Following the May 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election, no party emerged with an overall majority in the second class of the Grand Senate. Within minutes of the results being published Seán O'Neill and Thomas Bainbridge, at the time the Progressive and Agrarian Leaders publicly announced their intention to form a coalition with O'Neill as Chancellor and Bainbridge as Deputy Chancellor. However, following urging from Lord Advocate Elliot Doe and Grand Emperor Robert II a new coalition arrangement was formed with O'Neill as Chancellor with Billung and Bainbridge as Deputy Chancellors, however in his post-election address Billung stated that he would not become Deputy Chancellor resulting in Ruhan Myrkur being appointed as the National Democratic Deputy Chancellor, as Myrkur was seen as a frontrunner to replace Billung as Leader of the National Democrats.

The new government was appointed on 3 June 2024, following a confidence vote in the Grand Senate. However almost immediately controversy began to occur, with two Agrarian Grand Senators (including Bainbridge) using alternative versions of the oath of office.

These controversies would continue until Billung called for a motion of no confidence in Bainbridge, O'Neill then advised Bainbridge to resign and the coalition issued a new policy outlined in an address O'Neill delivered to the nation on 13 July 2024. Bainbridge initially acted as the Leader of His Imperial Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition between 8 - 18 July 2024 before combined pressure from Doe and O'Neill saw Bainbridge resign from all Elysiumite posts. The Agrarian Party was deregistered the day following Bainbridge's resignation.

Following the dissolution of the Agrarian Party's single Class II Grand Senator joined the Progressives giving them a narrow single seat majority in the Grand Senate, O'Neill would later win the by election for Bainbridge's First Class Grand Senate seat.

Internal Primaries began in Mid-July, on 16 July 2024, Alexander Constantine became the Leader of the National Democratic Party. On 20 July 2024, O'Neill was re-elected as Leader of the Progressive Party and Nicholas Lokin was elected as Deputy Leader of the Party. On 30 July 2024, Baddie was elected as the sole Leader of the Rhinoceros Party.

Second Class at dissolution

Affiliation		Class II Members
		Elected in 2024 I	Current	Change
	Progressive	5	6	▲ 1
	National Democrats	5	5	0
	Agrarians	1	0	▼ 1
Total		11	11	0
Vacant		0	0	0
Government Majority		0	1	▲ 1

Campaign

The Second Class of the Grand Senate was dissolved on 1 September 2024, Official campaigning began on 2 September 2024.

On 6 September 2024, James Christian opened the Progressive Party Federal Convention, with further speakers including Nicholas Lokin and Seán O'Neill. During the Convention, O'Neill, Lokin and Adam Johnston's tenures as Leader, Deputy Leader and Secretary-General were reaffirmed until January 2025. In particular O'Neill and Lokin's addresses were seen as veiled attacks against the National Democratic Party. O'Neill closed the Convention on 12 September 2024.

Lord Advocate Elliot Doe released a lengthy address on 7 September 2024 calling for the introduction of a National Covenant as an extension of the Codex Magnus Imperii.

As of 15 September 2024, the Progressive Party, National Democratic Party and the Rhinoceros Party have been registered as valid candidates. On the final day of official campaigning, O'Neill, Baddie and Constantine arranged a debate, however the debate did not occur due to Constantine not being able to attend.

Government Formation & Aftermath

Following the announcement of the results, Robert II invited Seán O'Neill to form a new government, O'Neill's ability to pursue a second term as Chancellor is dependent on his ability to renew the national government with the National Democratic Party. If successful O'Neill will be the first incumbent Chancellor to be successfully re-elected since Elliot Doe in the September 2022 election and will become the first Chancellor to lead a government while being a junior coalition member since Johann Kum.

Opinion Polling and Projections

Party

Poll Title	Pollster	Client	PR	ND	RH	AP	Lead
May 2024	May 2024 Elysiumite senatorial election		43.6%	43.6%	-	12.8%	Tie
June 2024 I	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	42.9%	42.9%	-	14.3%	Tie
NT polling	The National Tribune	Sir Elliot Doe	26.7%	66.7%	-	6.6%	40%
June 2022 II	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	45.5%	36.4%	-	9.1%	9.1%
Dissolution of the Agrarian Party (included in next poll), Constantine, Baddie and Lokin elected at Party Primaries.
July 2024	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	34.1%	50.0%	6.8%	9.1%	15.9%
September 2024	September 2024 Senatorial Election		38.5%	40%	15.4%	-	1.5%

Chancellor

Poll Title	Pollster	Client	O'Neill	Billung	Bainbridge	Lead
June 2024 I	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	57.1%	42.9%	0%	14.2
June 2022 II	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	45.5%	36.4%	0%	9.1%
Dissolution of the Agrarian Party, Constantine, Baddie and Lokin elected at Party Primaries.

Results

Results of the 22nd Grand Senate Election

Political Party	Leader	Class II candidates						Class II votes
		Nominated	Elected	Of total	Gained	Lost	Net	Count	Proportion of Total	Change in Proportion
National Democratic Party	Alexander Constantine	6	6	54.4%	1	0	+1	12	40%	-2.6%
Progressive Party	Seán O'Neill	9	4	36.4%	2	3	-1	10	38.5%	-5.1%
Rhinoceros Party	Based Baddie	4	1	9.1%	1	0	+1	4	15.4%	+15.4%