2021 Monmouth by-election

2021 Monmouth by-election
Monmouth electorate
	Location of Monmouth within House Hold
MP before election; Fox Fox; Labor	Elected MP ; Tusk Woolly; Liberal

The 2021 Monmouth by-election was a by-election to the House Hold House of Representatives following the resignation of the sitting Member of Parliament, Fox Fox. It was held on 29 May 2021. The by-election resulted in a gain for the Liberal Party on a swing of 15.7%.

Background

The 2021 House Hold general election saw a victory for the Liberal Party lead by Enia Hyena, and a crushing loss for Labor. On election night Fox Fox resigned as Labor party leader and announced that if re-elected he would resign as a member of the House of Representatives.

Electoral profile

Constituency

The Division of Monmouth was created ahead of the 2021 House Hold federal election.

Monmouth takes up the census divisions/boroughs of Virginia and Pelham. Monmouth borders the electorates Satago and Saytók.

Candidates

The following candidates are standing. The full list of candidates will be published on 22 May 2021.


Liberal	Tusk Woolly	Proboscidean Biologist. Former Member of Parliament. Ran for Monmouth Premier in 2021.
One Nation	Puggy Dog	Former Member of Parliament. Dog rights activist.
Independent	Albany Bear	Founder and Leader of the DBP. Former Deputy Leader of Bolderash – One Nation. Lost One Nation Pre-selection.
Democrats	John Puffin	Founder of Democrats 21, former Green MP for Laundry.
Labor	Forest Ferret	Long time Member of Parliament until he lost his seat on May 1.
Green	Horsie Horse	Horsie Horse is a Political Commentator and host of the Horse Race on HH1. He was a member of the Hallway Parliament from 2018-2020. He joined the Green Party in late 2019.
CBWP	Jack Duck
Independent	Smilo Plastic-Cat
Independent	Snufy Street
Teal	Snow Swan
Commonwealth	Iggy Green	Iggy Green is a former Green Party MP and a Democratic Party candidate in 2021.
Unity	Rainbow Bird

Tusk Woolly endorsements (LIB)

Members of the House of Representatives

Enia Hyena, Prime Minister of House Hold
La La, MP for Monmouth
Pekin Duck, MP for Monmouth
Fur Seal, MP for Bismarck

Local Government Officials

Spina Spino, Borough President of Virginia

Puggy Dog endorsements (ONP)

Members of the House of Representatives

Sergio, Former Prime Minister of House Hold
Monica Woolly, MP for Monmouth

Local Government Officials

John Puffin endorsements (ONP)

Members of the House of Representatives

Trunk Elephant, Monmouth

Local Government Officials

Forest Ferret endorsements (LAB)

Members of the House of Representatives

Fox Fox, Former Prime Minister of House Hold
Trunky Elephant, Monmouth
Honker Goose, Monmouth
Fur Woolly, Monmouth
Mallard Duck, New Denmark
Ewing, Saytók

Local Government Officials

Puff Puffin, Monmouth
Sting Ray, Pelham

Horsie Horse endorsements (GRN)

Members of the House of Representatives

Snow Goose, Monmouth
Africa Elephant, Monmouth

Local Government Officials

Creeper Craft, Premier of Bismarck

Opinion polls

Part of a projection with other electorates

Date	Firm	LAB	LIB	GRN	ONP	DEM	OTH	LAB	LIB
Date	Firm	Primary vote						TPP vote
26 May 2021	BNN	17.6%	51.0%	13.7%	5.9%	2.0%	9.8%	31.3%	68.8%
13 May 2021	HH1	18%	42%	12%	6%	2%	20%	36%	64%
11 May 2021	HH1	28.1%	40.4%	15.8%	8.8%	3.5%	3.5%	43.4%	56.6%
10 May 2021	BNN	28.3%	43.4%	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	3.8%	45.5%	54.5%
10 May 2021 Fox Fox resigns as a member of parliament
1 May 2021 Election	HHEC	28.6%	26.2%	22.6%	10.7%	8.3%	3.6%	56.3%	43.8%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
BNN	Likely Liberal	23 May 2021
Sky	Safe Liberal	14 May 2021
HH1	Safe Liberal	13 May 2021

Results

Polls were open in Monmouth from 6:00 to 16:00 EST. First Results are expected to report by 20:00 local time.

2021 Monmouth by-election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Party (House Hold)	Tusk Woolly	24	28.6	+2.2^[a]
	Labor Party of House Hold	Forest Ferret	14	16.7	−12.0
	Independent politicians in House Hold	Smilo Plastic-Cat	8	9.5	New
	Green Party of House Hold	Horsie Horse	7	8.3	−14.3
	Bolderash - One Nation	Puggy Dog	5	6.0	−4.7^[b]
	Teal Party	Snow Swan	5	6.0	New
	Democratic Party (House Hold)	John Puffin	4	4.8	−3.5^[c]
	Independent politicians in House Hold	Lami Lamb	3	3.6	New
	Monmouth Democrats	Gumbels Cat	3	3.6	+2.4^[d]
	Independent politicians in House Hold	Snufy Street	3	3.6	New
	Independent politicians in House Hold	Albany Bear	2	2.4	0.0^[e]
	Unity House Hold	Rainbow Bird	2	2.4	+1.2^[f]
	Communist Bird Workers Party (House Hold)	Jack Duck	1	1.2	−1.2
	Commonwealth Party (House Hold)	Iggy Green	1	1.2	−1.2^[g]
	Liberal Democrats (House Hold)	Cat Cat	1	1.2	New
	No Vote	No Vote	1	1.2	New
Turnout			84	96.6	+1.2
Two-party-preferred result
	Liberal Party (House Hold)	Tusk Woolly	45	57.0	+13.2
	Labor Party of House Hold	Forest Ferret	34	43.0	−13.2
Majority			11	14.0	+26.5
	Liberal Party (House Hold) gain from Labor Party of House Hold		Swing	+13.2

Previous result

2021 House Hold federal election: Monmouth
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	Quotas
Quota			6
	Labor	Fox Fox (elected 1)	9	10.7%	1.61
	Labor	Trunky Elephant (elected 3)	4	4.8%	0.71
	Labor	Fur Woolly (elected 9)	2	2.4%	0.36
	Labor	Elie Woolly	2	2.4%	0.36
	Labor	Honker Goose (elected 6)	1	1.2%	0.18
	Labor	Forest Ferret	1	1.2%	0.18
	Labor	Peacock Bird	1	1.2%	0.18
	Labor	Lossy Goose	1	1.2%	0.18
	Labor	Cackling Goose	1	1.2%	0.18
	Labor	Peaches Woolly	1	1.2%	0.18
	Labor	Rocky Woolly	1	1.2%	0.18
	Liberal	Enia Hyena (elected 4)	6	7.1%	1.07
	Liberal	Peanut Elephant (elected 12)	4	4.8%	0.71
	Liberal	La La (elected 13)	4	4.8%	0.71
	Liberal	Pekin Duck (elected 14)	3	3.6%	0.54
	Liberal	Schleswig Paleo	3	3.6%	0.54
	Liberal	Gumbels Cat	1	1.2%	0.18
	Liberal	Rainbow Bird	1	1.2%	0.18
	Greens	Snow Goose (elected 2)	9	10.7%	1.61
	Greens	Columbia Elephant (elected 5)	3	3.6%	0.54
	Greens	Asia Elephant	2	2.4%	0.36
	Greens	Spino Spino (elected 7)	1	1.2%	0.18
	Greens	Africa Elephant (elected 10)	1	1.2%	0.18
	Greens	Llama	1	1.2%	0.18
	Greens	Dimo Metra	1	1.2%	0.18
	Greens	Horsie Horse	1	1.2%	0.18
	One Nation	Manica Woolly (elected 11)	4	4.8%	0.71
	One Nation	Albany Bear	2	2.4%	0.36
	One Nation	Crookie Reptile	2	2.4%	0.36
	One Nation	Red Horse	1	1.2%	0.18
	Democrats	Trunk Elephant (elected 8)	4	4.8%	0.71
	Democrats	John Puffin	1	1.2%	0.18
	Democrats	Iggy Green	2	2.4%	0.36
	CBWP	Jack Duck	2	2.4%	0.36
	Count Binface	Count Binface	1	1.2%	0.18
Total formal votes			84	97.7%
Informal votes			2	2.3%
Turnout			86	98.9%
Party total votes
	Labor		24	28.6%	4.29
	Liberal		22	26.2%	3.93
	Greens		19	22.6%	3.39
	One Nation		9	10.7%	1.61
	Democrats		7	8.3%	1.25
	CBWP		2	2.4%	0.36
	Count Binface		1	1.2%	0.18

Notes

↑ Including Rainbow Bird's and Gumbels Cat personal vote at the 2021 general election
↑ Including Albany Bear's his personal vote at the 2021 general election
↑ Including Iggy Greens' his personal vote at the 2021 general election
↑ Compared to her personal vote at the 2021 general election
↑ Compared to his personal vote at the 2021 general election
↑ Compared to her personal vote at the 2021 general election
↑ Compared to his personal vote at the 2021 general election

References

[1] Including Rainbow Bird's and Gumbels Cat personal vote at the 2021 general election

[2] Including Albany Bear's his personal vote at the 2021 general election

[3] Including Iggy Greens' his personal vote at the 2021 general election

[4] Compared to her personal vote at the 2021 general election

[5] Compared to his personal vote at the 2021 general election

[6] Compared to her personal vote at the 2021 general election

[7] Compared to his personal vote at the 2021 general election

[a]

[b]

[c]

[d]

[e]

[f]

[g]