March 2020 Caudonian general election

Caudonian general election, March 2020

7 March 2020
All 19 seats of the Caudonian Parliament 10 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	69.8%
First party Second party Third party   File:Scots party logo.png Leader Andrew West Ned Fram Malcom Conner Party Social Democratic Caudonian Front Scots Alliance Democratic Alliance Democratic Alliance Leader since 2019 2019 2019 Last election 8 4 1 Seats won 6 6 2 Seat change ▼2 ▲2 ▲1 Popular vote 13 12 5 Percentage 29.5% 27.3% 11.4% Swing ▼17.9% ▲6.2% ▲6.1%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Archibald Sinclair Gabriel Sebastian William Smish Party Christian Union Alternative Co-operative Leader since 2019 2020 2019 Last election 1 New party 1 Seats won 2 2 1 Seat change ▲1 ▲2 Popular vote 4 4 4 Percentage 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% Swing ▲1.2% ▲9.1% ▲1.2%   Seventh party   Leader Caleb Wilson Party Libertarian Leader since 2020 Last election New party Seats won 0 Seat change Popular vote 2 Percentage 4.5% Swing ▲4.5%
Prime Minister before election Andrew West Social Democratic Party Prime Minister after election Andrew West Social Democratic Party

The March 2020 Caudonian General Election was held on 7 March 2020, four months after the previous elections as per the Caudonian Constitution. The election was the first Caudonian election of the 2020s.

Background

Political changes in Caudonia

Since the last general election in Caudonia. there has been many changes in the political landscape of the country. The only thing remaining the same is that Socdems and the Front remain the largest parties in Caudonia in terms of political power and members.

Since the last election, secondary parties have started to rise in the form of the Co-operative Party, the Christian Union and the Scots Party.As well as this, there have been several formations of new parties, like the Texan Heritage Party and the Triskelist Party (which split from the main Caudonian Front). Parties have also dissolved in Caudonia, most notably the Leftist League and the Populist Conservative Party. The Bread Party changed hands in order to become a left-wing party led by Yákov Szydłowski, which soon after founding merged to create the left-wing faction of the Scots Party. This short time period between the last election has made a massive change for the Political Climate of Caudonia.

Social changes in Caudonia

Caudonia now has a rise in people of different backgrounds joining the country as citizens, some of these have even taken on very important roles in Caudonian Society. People in Caudonia are no longer coming from English-speaking countries but from the world.

The role of women in Caudonian Society

The Social Democratic Party has also hosted the first female MP in Caudonia, Joy Baldacchino, she is the first female Member of Parliament in a nation reigned by William I. As well as this, Krystool has been employed as Caudonia's Clerk of the Assembly. Even though women have been treated equally from the start of Caudonia. This has shown that Caudonian women are taking on important roles within the country.

Campaign

The Caudonian Broadcasting Corporation held a debate on 15 February.

Campaigning for the Caudonian General election started on Monday, February 24th. The day after campaigning began, a controversy started over William I's direct involvement in campaigning for the Co-operative Party, and his use of "mudslinging" tactics against the Scots and the Socdems. Politicians from both the Democratic Alliance and the Coalition for Caudonia denounced his actions, noting that the monarch is supposed to act as a neutral force in the government. The event culminated in an official apology from the Prince and the announcement that he would no longer campaign directly. Ned Fram stated to the Prince that he should not have apologized because the Scots did actually cause some offense to Christians, because of a statement made regarding pedophilia in the Catholic Church.

Gibson announced that the next day that they would not hesitate for a unilateral declaration of independence should an extremist party take control of Caudonia. They stated however they would remain loyal to the Princely House of Caudonia.

On February 27th, Ned Fram announced the withdrawal of the Caudonian Front from the Coalition for Caudonia, and thus, its effective dissolution. He apologized for joining the Coalition in the first place, stating that he now believed it to be a "betray(al)" of his party's core values. He also cited discussions with leaders from both the Democratic Alliance and the Alternative for Caudonia in his official statement given to the Caudonian Broadcasting Corporation.

Opinion polls

There has been opinion polls carried out to predict who may win in the next Caudonian General election. There has also been polling on the three referenda that are scheduled to be held alongside this election.

Online/Citizens Abroad

Pollster	Release date	SDP*	PSL*	DA	CF§	CU§	CfC	AfC	Co-op	LP	Invalid/Undecided	Lead
CBC Gibson	21-2-2020	20%	13.3%	-	20%	13.3%	-	13.3%	0%	-	6.7%	Tie
CBC	1-3-2020	-	-	41.7%	-	-	25%	8.3%	0%	-	25%	16.7%
CBC Gibson	4-3-2020	-	-	26.7%	20%	13.3%	-	13.3%	6.7%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%

• = Member of the DA

§ = Member of the CfC until 27th of February

Bismarck

Pollster	Release date	SDP	CF††	CU††	CfC	Undecided	Lead
Bismarck Statistics Bureau	13-2-2020	50%	17%	17%	-	17%	33%
Bismarck Statistics Bureau	23-2-2020	50%	-	-	17%	34%	33%
Bismarck Statistics Bureau	26-2-2020	67%	-	-	17%	17%	50%
Bismarck Statistics Bureau	2-3-2020	67%	-	17%	-	17%	50%

• †: Party polling percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding.
• ††: Member of the CfC until 27th February

Ludusia

Pollster	Release date	CF
Caudonian Broadcasting Corporation	15-2-2020	100%

Parnia

Pollster	Release date	CF	AfC	Lead
Caudonian Broadcasting Corporation	13-2-2020	80%	20%	60%

GUM Accession Referendum

Question: Should Caudonia begin efforts to join the Grand Unified Micronational (commonly known as GUM)?

Pollster	Release date	Yes	No	Undecided	Lead
Caudonian Broadcasting Corporation	1-3-2020	41.7%	16.7%	41.7%	25%

USOV Accession Referendum

Question: Should Caudonia begin efforts to join the reformed United Sovereignties (commonly known as USov)?

Pollster	Release date	Yes	No	Undecided	Lead
Caudonian Broadcasting Corporation	1-3-2020	25%	25%	50%	Tie

State Secularism Referendum

Question: Should the Constitution be amended to ban the Government from favoring one religion or religious group over another?

Pollster	Release date	Yes	No	Undecided	Lead
Caudonian Broadcasting Corporation	1-3-2020	66.7%	8.3%	25%	58.4%

Results

In this election, the Social Democratic Party saw its vote share fall by more than 17%, though it still finished in first place amongst all parties in terms of the popular vote. These losses were partially offset by the success of their partner in the Democratic Alliance, the Scots Party, which increased its vote share by just over 6%, finishing in third place among all political parties. The Caudonian Front saw similar gains, and finished only one vote behind the Social Democrats, largely due to their successes in the counties of Caudonia, which had been won by the Social Democrats in the previous election.

Party		Leader	Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Democratic Alliance (SDP/Scots)	Andrew West	18	40.9%	8	▼1
	Social Democratic Party	Andrew West	13	29.5%	6	▼2
	Caudonian Front	Ned Fram	12	27.3%	6	▲2
	Scots Party	Malcom Conner	5	11.4%	2	▲1
	Christian Union	Archibald Sinclair	4	9.1%	2	▲1
	Alternative for Caudonia	Gabriel Sebastian	4	9.1%	2	▲2
	Co-operative Party	William Smish	4	9.1%	1
	Libertarian Party	Caleb Wilson	2	4.5%	0

Results by County

Olbialand

Olbialand
Party	Votes	%
Caudonian Front	3	60.0%
Co-operative Party	1	20.0%
Social Democratic Party	1	20.0%
Turnout	5	100%
Caudonian Front Gain

Bismarck

Bismarck
Party	Votes	%
Social Democratic Party	5	83.3%
Christian Union	1	16.7%
Turnout	6	100%
Social Democratic Hold

Ludusia

Ludusia
Party	Votes	%
Caudonian Front	2	100%
Turnout	2	100%
Caudonian Front Gain

Parnia

Parnia
Party	Votes	%
Caudonian Front	3	60.0%
Alternative for Caudonia	1	20.0%
Libertarian Party	1	20.0%
Turnout	5	100%
Caudonian Front Gain

New Rutland

Mainland
Party	Votes	%
Social Democratic Party	2	50.0%
Co-operative Party	1	25.0%
Caudonian Front	1	25.0%
Turnout	4	100%
Social Democratic Hold

Citizens Abroad/Online Voters

Citizens Abroad
Party	Votes	%
Scots Party	5	23.8%
Social Democratic Party	4	19.0%
Christian Union	3	14.3%
Alternative for Caudonia	3	14.3%
Co-operative Party	2	9.5%
Caudonian Front	2	9.5%
Libertarian Party	1	4.8%
Turnout	17	52.5%
Scots Party Gain

Aftermath and Government Formation

The government formation process after this election was the most hectic and strained to date, with multiple delays, arguments, and even the dissolution of the Co-operative Party taking place. The Prince first tasked the Caudonian Front with trying to form a Government, but they ultimately failed in their attempt to form a coalition between their party, the Co-operative Party, and the Alternative for Caudonia, as it would fall one seat short of a majority. This was only one of a multitude of proposed coalitions, with others including a coalition between the Christian Union, the Caudonian Front, and the Alternative for Caudonia, or another between the Social Democratic Party, the Caudonian Front, and the Alternative for Caudonia. Ultimately, however, after the dissolution of the Co-operative Party (its sole MP now sits with the Democratic Alliance), the Alliance, a group consisting of the Social Democrats and the Scots, was only one seat short of a majority in the 19 seat Parliament. Accordingly, they made a confidence and supply arrangement with the Christian Union, giving them a total of 11 seats, and a majority in Parliament.