July 2009 Erusian General Election

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July 2009 Erusian General Election
<May 2009 • Erusian elections • January 2010>
All 11 seats to the National People's Assembly
July 20th 2009
Candidate Robert Lethler Itakur Kiwal
Political Party National Communist Independent Communist - DF
Premier Candidate Kai Roosevelt Charles Stewart
% of Vote (May) 83.30% 16.70% (as EDA)
% of Vote (July) 59.30% 40.70%
Popular vote 16 11
Projected vote (%) 68.00% 32.00%
Incumbent AMs 8 1 (EDA)
New AMs 7 4

The July 2009 Erusian General Election is scheduled to take place on July 2nd 2009 in the Democratic People's Republic of Erusia, just over two months following the previous election, which was declared invalid at the end of the Erusian Civil War. Although the ruling Erusian National Communist Party and leading opposition the Erusian Democratic Alliance have both since publicly conceded the civil war was staged in order to "advance the revolutionary war against Camuria", the ruling Communist Party recently decided to uphold their promise to hold fresh elections following intermicronational pressure and a ruling that the invalidation of the May elections was inviolable and irreversible. With the last-minute registration of the Independent Communist Party, it is the second election in Erusian history with three political parties forwarding candidates. It will also be the second ever election to be held under the modified D'hondt system, indicating that the ruling Communists have elected to abandon the constituency-based voting system for the time being.

Background

Unlike the disputed December 2008 Erusian Executive Election, the verdict of the May 2009 General Election was widely accepted both within and without of the Democratic People's Republic as being genuine. It saw the Communist Party win an unprecedent landslide victory over the minority Democratic opposition at the time, the Erusian Democratic Workers' Alliance (now the Erusian Democratic Alliance). However, the ruling Communist Party later collaborated with the democracy movement to fake a civil war in the nation in order to attract the attention of it's enemies abroad, so that the Republican Guard (the Erusian intelligence service) could use the Democracy movement as an avenue for future intelligence operations against enemies. In the aftermath of the War over Micronational Communism, when the Republican Guard finally utilised this avenue of counter-attack, the Supreme People's Court ruled that the invalidation of the May elections had been legitemate and that the ENCP must hold new elections before the end of July. Although the Democracy activists had been hoping for a long electoral campaign, due to the planned absence of the ENCP's top leader and the pending Local Party Congresses, the date was set for July 2nd.

Projections

With the registration of the Erusian Independent Communist Party, the margin of victory for the Erusian National Communist Party is expected to be reduced. According to official figures published by the Central People's Government, the ruling Communists are predicted to secure 68% of the national vote (down from 83.30% in May), the Democratic Alliance 20% (up from 16.70%) and the Independent Communists just 12%. There are however concerns that Liberal and Moderate members of the Erusian National Communist Party may elect to secretly vote Independent Communist instead or, even worse, defect to the Independent Communists - in which case it is possible that the Independent Communists could secure a historical, if narrow, victory over the ENCP. No matter what happens however, the ENCP must maintain a constitutional majority of six seats in the National People's Assembly and as such has the final say on the election of both the Standing Committee and the Supreme People's Commissioner.

Outcome

The following day, the Central People's Government of Erusia declared that the Erusian National Communist Party had secured 59.30% against it's projected 68%, with the Independent Communist Party - Democratic Front coming second with 40.70% of the vote, much better than predicted originally. The election's abstination rate was 10.00%, with 9 in every 10 Erusians exercising their right to vote. The ENCP won seven seats in the new 11-seat Assembly (against eight from the preceding election), while the ICP-DF won four (up by three). All members of the Standing Committee were elected by a unaminous vote of the ENCP Assembly Members, with the vote for a Supreme People's Commissioner being postponed until incumbent Robert Lethler is available.

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