Opinion polling for the 2024 July Georgienstinian congressional election

In the run-up to the July 2024 Georgienstinian congressional election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Pinang during the term of the parliament elected on 2nd April 2024. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 2nd April 2024 to the next election due to be held in 2nd July 2024. The table below displays the poll results, showing voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Parliament election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right show the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Poll trackers

Trackers of voting intentions and other election-related polling:

• Georgienstinian Times

Electoral polling

76.19%The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Questions wording and the treatment of "don't know", "other" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations but are generally included in the party vote percentages. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 8 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Others	Lead
Georgienstinian Times	16-18 April					-
April 2024 Gubernatorial Election	13 April	-	76.19%	9.52%	-	14.29%	52.38
Georgienstinian Times	11-13 April	12	67%	25%	8%	-	43
Georgienstinian Times	8-10 April	9	67%	22%	11%	-	45
Georgienstinian Times	3-4 April	11	73%	23%	-	-	50
Georgienstinian Times	2 April	10	70%	20%	10%	-	40
April 2024 Election	2 April	-	62.5%	20.8%	16.7%	-	41.7

Leadership polling

In the run-up to the July 2024 Georgienstinian congressional election various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 2nd April 2024 to the next election due to be held in 2nd July 2024.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Others	Lead
			Oliver	Hetner	Matthews
Georgienstinian Times	11-13 April	12	67%	17%	8%	8%	43
Georgienstinian Times	8-10 April	11	55%	27%	9%	9%	28

Seat Projections

Most polls are reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters do not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the National Assembly. Other organisations including Electoral Calculus make rolling projections based on an aggregate of publicly available polls. A few large polls have been carried out to run multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) models, which output predictions for each constituency.

In the 14-seat National Assembly, 8 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority. Negative values in the rightmost column below indicate that the party with the most seats would not have a majority.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Others	Majority
Georgienstinian Times	11-13 April	12	10	3	1	-	2
Georgienstinian Times	8-10 April	9	10	3	1	-	2
Georgienstinian Times	3-4 April	11	10	4	-	-	2
Georgienstinian Times	2 April	10	10	3	1	-	2
2 April 2024 - Enacted constitutional amendment reduces Congress capacity from 16 to 14 seats
April 2024 Election	2 April	-	11	3	2	-	5