Next Elysiumite senatorial election

Next Elysiumite senatorial election
All 18 seats of the Grand Senate; 7 first-class seats ; 11 second-class seats
Incumbent Chancellor; Sir Elliot Doe; ND	; ;

The 21st Grand Senate Election in the Empire of Elysium is occurring between 26 and 28 May 2024. It will determine the composition of both classes of the Grand Senate, and the composition of the second class of the Grand Senate, the next executive administration of the Empire and the election of the first Prince Imperial since the restoration of the Empire. Significant constitutional reforms will be in effect due to the reforms to the electoral system brought by the Codex Magnus Imperii and the "Elections Amendment, 2024".

The election will also be significant as both the incumbent Chancellor, Elliot Doe of the National Democrats, and Opposition Leader Adam Johnston, of the Progressives have retired from leadership positions within their parties. The National Democrats elected Christoph Billung to succeed Chancellor Doe, and the Progressive Party elected Seán O'Neill to succeed Adam Johnston. Additionally this election will also be significant as the leader of the two largest parties are both members of the Catholic Church and identifying as a sexual orientation that is not hetrosexual, with Billung identifying as 'Same-Sex Attracted' and O'Neill identifying as Bisexual. In addition Johann Kümmel, leader of the Rhinoceros Party is likewise a member of the Catholic Church.

Following the ratification of the Codex, this election will be the first of such that will see the first class and second class Grand Senators and the Prince Imperial elected in the same election. This election would have been the first election since the May 2020 Grand Senate elections where there was no major party leader candidate from Elyria, however as Hilton has merged into Elyria due to constitutional reforms Billung is now considered a resident of Elyria.

Date of the Election

The political party primaries occurred on 18 March, 2024, with campaigning opening on 1 March, 2024. The primary elections lasted forty-eight hours. The general election is scheduled to occur on 26 May 2024 and will last for 48 hours.

Voting eligibility

Individuals who are eligible to vote do not have to perform any form of registration in the Empire of Elysium. To be eligible to vote an individual must be at least sixteen years old, and must have been a citizen of Elysium for at least two months. Citizens who meet the qualifications to vote may also contest the election.

Background

The next election is scheduled to be held between 26 May - 1 June 2024. Originally the next election was scheduled to take place on 18 January 2024, but the Crown elected to delay the election. According to the Election Organization and Election Act. 2023 the election was legally expected to occur on 16 May but that is expected to be delayed to the end of the month to allow for constitutional reforms to be enacted prior to the election occurring.

In the previous election the incumbent Progressives, led by Chancellor Adam Johnston, lost to the National Democrats, led by former Chancellor Elliot Doe. Prior to the election, the Progressive Ministry was met with a well organized and hostile National Democratic opposition following Adam Johnston's surprising election wherein he defeated National Democrat Thomas Bainbridge. After the election Elliot Doe, who had previously led the party, suggested that he return to leadership, and Thomas Bainbridge take over as the party's deputy leader. Initially, Thomas Bainbridge agreed to this, and campaigned enthusiastically with Doe. Bainbridge spoke at the National Democratic convention, saying: "We need a Chancellor with this quality, which I why I am endorsing Sir Elliot Doe to become Chancellor of the Empire." However, in early August Bainbridge suddenly left the National Democrats, resigning as Deputy Leader, and announced the creation of the Agrarian Party. In addition to Bainbridge a number of moderates in the Progressive Party also joined in the founding of the new Progressive Party.

Despite Bainbridge's sudden departure from the party, the National Democrats managed to maintain most of their campaign momentum and went on to win the election.

Following the election the Empire fell into what has been regarded as a state of inactivity. The government and opposition alike, alongside the Crown, did not take to the matters of governing very seriously during this period. Due to this, the Crown decided to delay the January elections, and openly discussed the possibility of downsizing many elements of the government. Some activity did arise due to the refusal of Commonwealth leader Eugene Smith to follow the constitutional order, and thus was subsequently impeached by the Grand Senate. The process was particularly divisive as the incumbent Chancellor, Elliot Doe, confronted Eugene Smith of his misdeeds before the cabinet, following an attack on the Chancellor from Eugene Smith, and then dismissed the leader. The impeachment was passed unanimously in the Grand Senate, and after refusing to present himself before a trial the Imperial Council voted to convict Eugene Smith. Eugene Smith's impeachment and subsequent conviction is one of the few successful examples of impeachment in the history of the Empire.

The election season began with the announcement that Seán O'Neill would run for the leadership of the Progressive-Labor Party. In the months prior to the announcement, O'Neill had become the de facto public face of the Progressive movement due to the declining activity of the de jure Progressive Leader Adam Johnston and much of the 'Old Guard' of the Progressive Party. It was expected that Elliot Doe would remain as the National Democrat Leader into the election however on 3 March 2024, Doe announced his retirement from the leadership of the National Democrats and candidacy for it's presidency. On the same day Christoph Billung was formally announced to be running for the leadership of the National Democrats.

In order to prevent a messy primary election and to prevent the only man in the Progressive-Labor Party that could challenge him, O'Neill convinced Adam Johnston to not run for re-election but to run for the Secretary-Generalship of the Party. On 10 March 2024, National Democrat Grand Senator Maximilian Meister announced that he would defect from the National Democrats to the Progressives and run for the leadership of the Progressive-Labor Party.

The announcement of Meister's campaign was not met positively, with neither the incumbent or incoming Leaders of both the National Democrats and Progressive-Labor Party commenting upon it. Four days before the primaries, Meister announced to the Progressives that he would instead contest the Deputy Leadership of the Progressive-Labor Party whenever O'Neill called for Progressives to run for that office.

The primaries occurred on 16 March 2024, with polls closing on 18 March 2024. O'Neill and Billung were elected to the Progressive and National Democrat Leadership respectively, Thomas Bainbridge was re-elected as the Agrarian Leader and Meister was elected as Progressive Deputy Leader. Following the primary, David Augustus became Billung's effective running mate and de facto National Democrat Deputy Leader although has not been formally installed in such position.

On 8 May 2024, Parliament was officially dissolved, on the same day Billung, Bainbridge and O'Neill participated in a party leadership debate on 8 May 2024 hearing questions from the Electoral Commission and from the general populace.

On 13 May 2024, the Codex was officially enacted via referendum, on the same day Doe resigned as Chancellor with Billung replacing him as Chancellor. On the same day, the nominations process for the Class I elections began.

Grand Senate at dissolution

The results of the 2023 III Grand Senate election are given below, alongside the current numbers in the Grand Senate. Numbers have changed due to the defection of Gabriel Sebastian from the National Democrats to the Progressives, additionally personnel within the National Democrat delegation has changed due to the resignation of Maximillian Meiser, the impeachment of Eugene Smith, and Janusz Mazanek.

Affiliation		Members
Affiliation		Elected in 2023 III	Current	Change
	National Democrats	8	7	▼ 1
	Progressive	6	7	▲ 1
	Agrarians	1	1	0
	Rhinoceros	0	0	0
Total		15	15	0
Vacant		0	0	0
Government Majority		1	0	▼ 1

Opinion Polling

A total of five polls have been held so far. As of April 2024 the Unionist Corporation stating they plan to conduct two to three more before the general election.

Poll Title	Pollster	Client	PR	ND	AP	Lead
Poll Title	Pollster	Client				Lead
March 2024	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	38.46%	46.15%	15.38%	7.69
April 2024 I	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	58.33%	25.0%	16.67%	33.3%
NT polling (2)	The National Tribune	Sir Elliot Doe	33.3%	55.6%	11.1%	22.3%
April 2024 II	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	38.5%	38.5%	23.1%	Tie
May 2024 I	The Unionist	Government of Elysium	53.3%	46.7%	0%	6.6%

Class I Election

The formal process for the election of Class I Grand Senators began on 12 May 2024 with the swearing in of James Christian, the Emperor's Hand as the president of the College of Electors.

Within the first 24 hours, the Duke of Serramwen (Elliot Doe), the Prince of Hilton (Christoph Billung), the Landgrave of Pictens (Adam Johnston), the King of Ticronvidia (David Augustus), the Prince of Kaiserhof (Johann Kümmel), the Grand Prince of Norðurlöndin (Thomas Bainbridge) and the Landgrave of Kárhawísta (Moustapha Hotiet) were all nominated and accepted their nominations. Initially The Duke of Greymont (Seán O'Neill) was nominated but declined to accept it however on 13 May he accepted his nomination. Later, the Duke of Nordhaus (Zecheriah O’Hair) was nominated and accepted his nomination.

The nomination process is due to remain open until 19 May 2024, with the College of Electors beginning voting on 26 May 2024 and the ballot closing on 28 May 2024.

Unlike with the Class II, the National Democrats are expected to achieve a majority or plurality within Class I. It will however not determine who will form a government as under Section 3.1 of the Charter for the Instruments of the Government the Chancellor is only required to command a majority within the Class II Grand Senators.

On 19 May 2024, the nomination process ended with 4 National Democrats, 2 Progressives, 1 Rhino and 1 independent being nominated to Class I seats.