Sorrenian General Election, November 2018

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Sorrenian general election, November 2018

Sorreniaflagnew.png
← July 2018 26/11/18 April 2019 →
Turnout 82%
Party Leader % Seats ±
New Monarchists King Ronald I 28 13 -1
The Republicans Harold Wanton 24 13 -1
NDLP Llewelyn Lawton 24 12 +5
Christian Alliance Richard Brooker 19.5 7 0
Hortanian National Party Damian Billbrough 3 1 -2
Dradelian Revolutionary Front Rilgar Ompastre 1 1 -1
Lasgalen Revolutionary Front Llewelyn Gwyndyr 0.5 0 0
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.

The 4th Sorrenian general election took place formally on the 26th of November, 2018, after several weeks of campaigning.

The election was called by King Ronald after the sudden resignation of Martin Aquinas from the leadership of The Republicans. The election saw the rise of the NDLP who won five seats, while the other parties either lost seats or remained static electorally.

The election marks the first election in the Kingdom of Sorrenia in which the monarchist parties were unable to form a coalition government with the result.

Background

Prior to the election, the New Monarchists led a coalition government with the Christian Alliance and the HNP. Some within the New Monarchists began to vocalise their desire for a new election in mid October, with the hope of securing a stronger majority and mandate.

Generally however, throughout the run up to the election, most politicians opposed a new election so close to the previous one.

Old Monarchist Name Change

In early October, the Old Monarchists changed their name to the Christian Alliance, and developed a new party platform focused on the implementation of Christian ethics and the protection of religious minorities in Sorrenia.

The sudden changes were due to an internal worry that the party was too closely associated with the New Monarchists, and would eventually be pushed out by their larger counterpart.

The move was positively received by many, and the party improved in the polls, leading party leader Richard Brooker to call for a renewed election; he was the first party leader to do so.

Growth of Monarchist-Republican Tensions

Throughout the lead-up to the election, tensions between the monarchists and republicans had grown. This ideological conflict was worsened when The Republicans produced a new manifesto in October, reiterating their calls for a renewed Sorrenian Federation, despite the calls for a moderate approach by party leader Martin Aquinas.

In turn, the New Monarchists also hardened their approach, refusing to implement even moderate reforms, stating that they constituted an attack on the monarch's sovereignty.

Resignation of Martin Aquinas

The Hard Republican manifesto approved by The Republicans' conference led party leader Martin Aquinas to resign. Beliefs that Martin would resign in favour of joining the NDLP or creating a new political party had been discussed prior to the conference, although Martin stated that he would remain party leader.

After the conference however, he stated that he could no longer endorse The Republicans' manifesto, and resigned shortly afterwards, joining the NDLP.

The resignation seriously hurt The Republicans', and Martin's veteran status in Sorrenia led to a bump in the polls for the NDLP.

Shortly afterwards, in early November, King Ronald announced that an election would take place, seen by many as an attempt to capitalise on The Republicans' weakened position.

Electoral system

Campaign and candidates

Posters

Opinion polls

National

Pollster Release NM TR CA NDLP HNP DRF LRF Lead
Military Tribune 28% 26% 22% 19% 4% 1% N/A 2%
Military Tribune 28% 26% 20% 21% 4% 1% N/A 2%
New Democratic Times 27% 28% 19% 21% 4% 1% N/A 1%
Military Tribune 28% 26% 17% 24% 4% 1% N/A 2%
New Democratic Times 28% 28% 20% 17.5% 5% 1% 0.5% Tie
Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance
People's Pravda 26% 30% 16% 23% 4% 1% N/A 4%
Military Tribune 28% 26% 20% 22% 3% 1% N/A 2%
Military Tribune 27% 26% 22.7% 19% 4% 1% 0.3% 1%
Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership
New Democratic Times 27% 23% 21% 24% 4% 1% N/A 3%
Military Tribune 25% 22% 20% 28% 4% 1% N/A 3%
Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP
People's Pravda 26% 22% 20% 27% 4% 1% N/A 1%
Llais Gwirionedd 28% 24% 20% 23.5% 3% 1% 0.5% 4%
Llais Gwirionedd 28% 24% 22% 21.5% 3% 1% 0.5% 4%
Exit Poll 28% 23% 20.5% 24% 3% 1% 0.5% 4%
Final Result 28% 24% 19.5% 24% 3% 1% 0.5% 4%

Hortania

Pollster Release HNP TR NDLP Lead
Military Tribune 38% 34% 28% 4%
Military Tribune 40% 30% 30% 10%
Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance
Hortanian Times 37% 35% 28% 2%
Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership
Hortanian Times 35% 32% 33% 2%
Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP
Hortanian Times 34% 30% 36% 2%
Military Tribune 34% 30% 36% 2%
Exit Poll 33% 28% 39% 6%
Final Result 33% 31% 36% 3%

Dradelia

Pollster Release DRF TR NM Lead
Military Tribune 62% 30% 8% 32%
Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance
Dradelian Herald 58% 32% 10% 26%
Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership
Dradelian Herald 64% 26% 10% 38%
Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP
Military Tribune 68% 22% 10% 46%
Exit Poll 66% 24% 10% 42%
Final Result 66% 24% 10% 42%

Amon Lasgalen

Pollster Release CA NDLP LRF TR Lead
Llais Gwirionedd 38% 34% 16% 10% 4%
Llais Gwirionedd 40% 34% 14% 10% 6%
Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance
Llais Gwirionedd 40% 36% 16% 8% 4%
Llais Gwirionedd 42% 36% 12% 8% 6%
Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership
Llais Gwirionedd 42% 40% 12% 6% 2%
Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP
Llais Gwirionedd 42% 42% 12% 4% Tie
Llais Gwirionedd 40% 42% 14% 4% 2%
Exit Poll 42% 42% 12% 4% Tie
Final Result 40% 42% 14% 4% 2%

National Results

Popular Vote
New Monarchists
  
28%
The Republicans
  
24%
NDLP
  
24%
Christian Alliance
  
19.5%
Hortanian National Party
  
3%
DRF
  
1%
LRF
  
0.5%
Seat share in the King's Council
New Monarchists
  
28%
The Republicans
  
28%
NDLP
  
25%
Christian Alliance
  
15%
Hortanian National Party
  
2%
DRF
  
2%
LRF
  
0%

Swung Constituencies

Constituency Party before election Party after election
Chester-le-Street New Monarchists The Republicans
Bowburn The Republicans NDLP
South Shields The Republicans Christian Alliance
Whitley Bay The Republicans Christian Alliance
Seaham Dradelian Revolutionary Front The Republicans
Amon Lasgalen Christian Alliance NDLP
South Hortania Hortanian National Party NDLP
York Hortanian National Party NDLP
Lake District Christian Alliance NDLP

Aftermath

New Monarchists

The party leadership of the New Monarchists were visibly dismayed at the election result; although they remained the largest party, they failed to capitalise on the internal tensions in The Republicans, and found themselves leaving a comfortable coalition into one of greater compromise.

King Ronald reiterated his stance that the party would not accept a reduction in the monarch's powers, but acknowledged that the vote was an indication of support for a moderate approach.

The Republicans

Although the party was able to hold onto its core seats, the resignation of Martin Aquinas clearly harmed the party electorally, and the drop of 4% in the result and the loss of Bowburn, South Shields and Whitley Bay came as a disappointment; the party had especially hoped to hold onto their stronghold of Bowburn, despite Martin's personal popularity in the county.

Party leader Harold Wanton stated that he would consider coalition government with the NDLP, and sought to bring the fractured party together, promising a "unified front for republicanism".

NDLP

The clear winners of the election, leader Llewelyn Lawton's speech spoke of the breakthrough win and urged other parties to heed the electorate's call for moderation.

The party reiterated its willingness to enter coalition with either the New Monarchists or The Republicans, and prepared a list of desired ministerial posts.

Christian Alliance

The party called the election a "moderate victory", and was happy with its ability to win seats in eastern Newcastle. Some political commentators however had a more negative view, arguing that the Christian Alliance remained underrepresented in the King's Council, and posited that had the party maintained its calls for electoral reform, it would have fared better in the west and Amon Lasgalen.

The party was quickly dismissed to the opposition, and was not considered for coalition government; as a result, the election tacitly lost the Christian Alliance several lucrative ministerial positions.

Hortanian National Party

The HNP's defeat in York came as a surprise, and curbed plans for a referendum on a White Rose Parliament. Their defeat in South Hortania was also a surprise, and the party acknowledged its poor results in Damian Billbrough's speech.

Nonetheless, the party remained hopeful that its one remaining representative could enter coalition government alongside the New Monarchists and the NDLP, due to their electoral alliance with the former.

Party leaders vocally expressed the need for the party to revitalise its message, and reach out to other sections of Hortania who did not vote for the party.

Dradelian Revolutionary Front

The DRF's leadership expressed contentment with the result, increasing their majority in Dradelia. The loss of their representative in Seaham was seen as a disappointment by some, but was in some sense welcomed by the old guard of the party, who resented the emerging 'Mackem Dradelian' cultural subgroup.

The party stressed its commitment to Dradelian independence and its willingness to continue using force to achieve this aim.

Lasgalen Revolutionary Front

Due to the inability of the Christian Alliance to secure devolution for Amon Lasgalen, it was generally hoped by the party that they could at least increase their voter share, if not win the constituency.

Their poor result of 14% led several members to resign, moderating their calls from that of independence to gradual democratic reform.

Party leader Llewelyn Gwyndyr was forced to resign, and in his place the Millomist faction quickly rose to prominence, essentially reshaping the party from one advocating separatism to one of devolution.

Government Formation

It quickly became clear that the NDLP would be part of any majority government; during the election, the party had expressed willingness to work with both the New Monarchists and The Republicans, and so which coalition would emerge was not obvious.

During the NDLP celebration speech, leader Llewelyn Lawton stated that the party would begin negotiations with both parties.

It was widely acknowledged that the Christian Alliance and DRF would be part of the opposition.

New Monarchist-NDLP-HNP Coalition

Reportedly favoured by Martin Aquinas and Melseeq Seetoornah, several NDLP figures believed that entering into government with the New Monarchists would indicate a real desire to compromise.

NDLP leader Llewelyn Lawton met with King Ronald and the party chairman to discuss coalition formation; the NDLP were reportedly concerned with the New Monarchists' conservative social agenda, 'no-amnesty' policy in relation to Dradelian dissidents, and their continued alliance with the Hortanian National Party.

Nonetheless, after their meeting, Lawton publicly stated the party was 'seriously considering' the coalition offer.

The Republicans-NDLP Coalition

After the result, Republicans leader Harold Wanton reached out to the NDLP proposing a coalition. Leading NDLP figures (including Martin Aquinas, previously chairman of The Republicans) expressed internal opposition to the idea, due largely to The Republicans' hard line manifesto.

Although economically and socially closer to The Republicans, NDLP leadership publicly expressed their wariness, largely due to their having run on a policy of healing the monarchist-republican divide. Nonetheless, party figures met with Harold Wanton several times to discuss coalition formation.

Government Formation

Six days after the election, a coalition government was struck between the New Monarchists, the NDLP and the HNP. The NDLP were given a sizeable number of cabinet positions, including the Premiership, and secured a freeze on religious and social legislation, while the New Monarchists were able to mostly retain their economic agenda.

The party leadership all vocally endorsed the coalition deal, while various local NDLP chapters (especially in Yorkshire and the West) criticised it for failing to guarantee electoral reform; many such chapters instead endorsed an NDLP-Republicans coalition.

The New Monarchists, NDLP and HNP took their seats together two days after the deal was agreed upon.