Opinion polling for the Vatolean general election, 2020

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In the run-up to the 2020 Vatish general election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Vatolean.

Party Vote

Graphical summary

The graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for political parties.

Graphical summary of polls for the 2020 Vatish General Election

Polling aggregates

Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Poll type Green Royalist SDP Undecided Lead Red Blue
BNN Projection 19 May 2020 11-19 May 2020 First Preference 25.5% 33.8% 45.7% - 14.9% 66.2% 33.8%
Final Result 29.5% 30.4% 40.1% - 9.7% 69.8% 30.4%
Election Predictions 16 May 2020 11-16 May 2020 First Preference 16.1% 43.5% 40.3% - 3.2% 55.7% 44.3%
Final Result 20.9% 34.3% 44.8% - 10.5% 65.7% 34.3%
Vinland News 15 May 2020 15 May 2020 First Preference 20% 53.3% 26.7% - 26.6% 46.7% 53.3%
Final Result 21.7% 48.3% 26.7% - 21.6% 51.7% 48.3%
Flagspert 15 May 2020 11-15 May 2020 First Preference 20.1% 31.2% 48.5% - 17.3% 68.8% 31.2%
Final Result 29.3% 23.9% 46.9% - 15.6% 76.1% 23.9%
DNN 14 May 2020 14 May 2020 First Preference 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% - 16.7% 66.7% 33.3%

Individual polls

      Prediction (Not a poll but a Forecast)

      On the day Poll (Asking people how they would or have voted)

      Exit poll

      Forecast (Forecast of the Final Result)

Polling Firm/Link Fieldwork

Period

Sample Size Poll type Green Royalist SDP Ventre Communist Pirate Others /

Don't know

Lead Red Blue
Result on Election Night - 22 First Preference - - - -
Final Result - - - -
BNN       Forecast 23 May 2020 at 10:34pm BNN projected a Minority Government
DNN       Forecast 23 May 2020 at 10:09pm DNN projected a Minority Government
DNN       Exit poll TBA TBA First Preference - - - -
Final Result - - - -
BNN       Exit poll 15-23 May 2020 27 First Preference 18.5% 25.9% 55.6% - - - - 29.3% 74.1% 25.9%
Final Result 26.6% 28.8% 44.6% - - - - 15.8% 71.2% 28.8%
23 May 2020 Polling day in Vatolean
BNN      On the day Poll 23 May 2020       Prediction First Preference 10% 30% 60% - - - - 30% 70% 30%
Final Result 20% 35% 45% - - - - 10% 65% 35%
22 May 2020 Electoral Commission reports about 77% of voters voted before election day
BNN 22 May 2020 11 First Preference 18.2% 45.5% 36.4% - - - - 9.1% 54.5% 45.5%
Final Result 30.7% 33.3% 36% - - - - 2.7% 66.7% 33.3%
BNN 21 May 2020 9 First Preference 22.2% 33.3% 44.4% - - - - 11.1% 66.7% 33.3%
Final Result 22% 33.9% 40.1% - - - - 6.2% 66.1% 33.9%
BNN 20 May 2020 10 First Preference 20% 40% 40% - - - - Tie 60% 40%
Final Result 30.1% 33.9% 35.5% - - - - 1.6% 66.1% 33.9%
Vinland News 19 May 2020 11 First Preference 18.2% 54.6% 27.3% - - - - 27.3% 45.4% 54.6%
Final Result 28.6% 39.0% 32.5% - - - - 6.5% 61.0% 39.0%
BNN 19 May 2020 7 First Preference 28.6% 28.6% 48.7% - - - - 20.1% 71.4% 28.6%
Final Result 36.7% 28.6% 34.7% - - - - 2.0% 71.4% 28.6%
BNN 18 May 2020 9 First Preference 11.1% 44.4% 44.4% - - - - Tie 56.6% 44.4%
Final Result 29.7% 34.4% 35.9% - - - - 1.5% 65.6% 34.4%
16 May 2020 Electoral Commission reports about 42% of voters early voted
BNN 16 May 2020 9 First Preference 22.2% 44.4% 33.3% - - - - 11.1% 56.6% 44.4%
Final Result 25% 37.5% 37.5% - - - - Tie 62.5% 37.5%
16 May 2020 Parliament Votes 3-1 to increase the number of seats from 5 to 6 and to change the Voting system to MMP
Vinland News 15 May 2020 15 First Preference 20% 53.3% 26.7% - - - - 26.6% 46.7% 53.3%
Final Result 21.7% 48.3% 26.7% - - - - 21.6% 51.7% 48.3%
BNN 15 May 2020 17 First Preference 23.5% 29.4% 47.1% - - - - 17.7% 70.6% 29.4%
Final Result 25.4% 26.8% 47.8% - - - - 21.0% 73.2% 26.8%
Flagspert 14-15 May 2020 11 First Preference 18.1% 27.2% 54.5% - - - - 27.3% 72.8% 27.2%
Final Result 31.3% 21.9% 46.9% - - - - 15.6% 78.1% 21.9%
BNN 15 May 2020 6 First Preference 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% - - - - Tie 66.7% 33.3%
DNN 14 May 2020 6 First Preference 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% - - - - 16.7% 66.7% 33.3%
Flagspert 11-14 May 2020 6 First Preference 25.0% 33.3% 33.3% - - - 8.3% Tie 58.3% 33.3%
BNN 14 May 2020 6 First Preference 16.7% 33.3% 33.3% - - - 16.7% Tie 50.0% 33.3%
BNN 13 May 2020 7 First Preference 14.3% 42.9% 42.9% - - - - Tie 57.1% 42.9%
12 May 2020 Sergio is Elected Deputy Leader of the SDP
BNN 12 May 2020 6 First Preference 16.7% 33.3% 50% - - - - 16.7% 66.7% 33.3%
11 May 2020 Prime Minister's Debate
BNN 11 May 2020 4 First Preference 25% 25% 50% - - - - 25% 75% 25%
11 May 2020 Venstre Party is Dissolved
11 May 2020 Royalist Party is Founded
11 May 2020 Pirate Party is Dissolved
11 May 2020 Communist Party is Dissolved
BNN 10 May 2020 4 First Preference 25% - 25% 25% 0% 25% 0% Tie 50% 50%
9 May 2020 King Ewing I calls a general election for 15 and 23 May
6 May 2020 Parliament Votes 3-1 for an early general election for 15 to 23 May 2020
BNN 1 May 2020 4 First Preference 25% - 25% 0% 25% 25% 0% Tie 75% 25%
General Election 27-28 December 2019 9 First Preference 33.3% - 22.2% 11.1% 11.1% 22.2% - 11.1% 66.6% 33.4%


Seat projections

Polling aggregates

Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Green Royalist SDP Majority Red Blue
BNN Projection 21 May 2020 11-21 May 2020 1 2 3 Hung 4 2
Election Predictions 16 May 2020 11-16 May 2020 1 2 3 Hung 4 2
Vinland News 15 May 2020 15 May 2020 1 3 1 R + 1 2 3
Flagspert 15 May 2020 11-15 May 2020 1 1 3 S + 1 4 1
DNN 14 May 2020 14 May 2020 1 1 3 S + 1 4 1
Polling Firm/Link Fieldwork

Period

Green Royalist SDP Ventre Communist Pirate Others /

Don't know

Majority Red Blue
BNN 22 May 2020 2 2 2 - - - - Hung 4 2
BNN 21 May 2020 1 2 3 - - - - Hung 4 2
BNN 20 May 2020 2 2 2 - - - - Hung 4 2
Vinland News 19 May 2020 2 2 2 - - - - Hung 4 2
BNN 19 May 2020 2 2 2 - - - - Hung 4 2
BNN 18 May 2020 1 2 3 - - - - Hung 4 2
BNN 16 May 2020 1 2 3 - - - - Hung 4 2
BNN 15 May 2020 1 1 3 - - - - Hung 4 2
Vinland News 15 May 2020 1 3 1 - - - - R + 1 2 3
BNN 15 May 2020 1 1 3 - - - - S + 1 4 1
Flagspert 14-15 May 2020 1 1 3 - - - - S + 1 4 1
BNN 15 May 2020 1 1 3 - - - - S + 1 4 1
DNN 14 May 2020 1 1 3 - - - - S + 1 4 1
Flagspert 11-14 May 2020 1 2 2 - - - - Hung 3 2
BNN 14 May 2020 1 2 2 - - - - Hung 3 2
BNN 13 May 2020 1 2 2 - - - - Hung 3 2
BNN 12 May 2020 1 2 2 - - - - Hung 4 1
BNN 11 May 2020 1 1 3 - - - - S + 1 4 1
BNN 10 May 2020 2 - 1 - - 2 - Hung 3 2
BNN 1 May 2020 2 - 1 - 1 1 - Hung 3 2
General Election 27-28 December 2019 3 - 1 - - 1 - G + 1 4 1

Electorate polling

Polling Firm/Link Fieldwork

Period

Green Royalist SDP
BNN Exit Poll 15-23 May 2020 0 0 0