November 2018 Sorrenian general election
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| Turnout | 82% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
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The 4th Sorrenian general election took place formally on the 26th of November, 2018, after several weeks of campaigning.
The election was called by King Ronald after the sudden resignation of Martin Aquinas from the leadership of The Republicans. The election saw the rise of the NDLP who won five seats, while the other parties either lost seats or remained static electorally.
The election marks the first election in the Kingdom of Sorrenia in which the monarchist parties were unable to form a coalition government with the result.
Background
Prior to the election, the New Monarchists led a coalition government with the Christian Alliance and the HNP. Some within the New Monarchists began to vocalise their desire for a new election in mid October, with the hope of securing a stronger majority and mandate.
Generally however, throughout the run up to the election, most politicians opposed a new election so close to the previous one.
Old Monarchist Name Change
In early October, the Old Monarchists changed their name to the Christian Alliance, and developed a new party platform focused on the implementation of Christian ethics and the protection of religious minorities in Sorrenia.
The sudden changes were due to an internal worry that the party was too closely associated with the New Monarchists, and would eventually be pushed out by their larger counterpart.
The move was positively received by many, and the party improved in the polls, leading party leader Richard Brooker to call for a renewed election; he was the first party leader to do so.
Growth of Monarchist-Republican Tensions
Throughout the lead-up to the election, tensions between the monarchists and republicans had grown. This ideological conflict was worsened when The Republicans produced a new manifesto in October, reiterating their calls for a renewed Sorrenian Federation, despite the calls for a moderate approach by party leader Martin Aquinas.
In turn, the New Monarchists also hardened their approach, refusing to implement even moderate reforms, stating that they constituted an attack on the monarch's sovereignty.
Resignation of Martin Aquinas
The Hard Republican manifesto approved by The Republicans' conference led party leader Martin Aquinas to resign. Beliefs that Martin would resign in favour of joining the NDLP or creating a new political party had been discussed prior to the conference, although Martin stated that he would remain party leader.
After the conference however, he stated that he could no longer endorse The Republicans' manifesto, and resigned shortly afterwards, joining the NDLP.
The resignation seriously hurt The Republicans', and Martin's veteran status in Sorrenia led to a bump in the polls for the NDLP.
Shortly afterwards, in early November, King Ronald announced that an election would take place, seen by many as an attempt to capitalise on The Republicans' weakened position.
Electoral system
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Campaign and candidates
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Posters
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Opinion polls
National
| Pollster | Release | NM | TR | CA | NDLP | HNP | DRF | LRF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Military Tribune | 28% | 26% | 22% | 19% | 4% | 1% | — | 2% | |
| Military Tribune | 28% | 26% | 20% | 21% | 4% | 1% | — | 2% | |
| New Democratic Times | 27% | 28% | 19% | 21% | 4% | 1% | — | 1% | |
| Military Tribune | 28% | 26% | 17% | 24% | 4% | 1% | — | 2% | |
| New Democratic Times | 28% | 28% | 20% | 17.5% | 5% | 1% | 0.5% | Tie | |
| Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance | |||||||||
| People's Pravda | 26% | 30% | 16% | 23% | 4% | 1% | — | 4% | |
| Military Tribune | 28% | 26% | 20% | 22% | 3% | 1% | — | 2% | |
| Military Tribune | 27% | 26% | 22.7% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0.3% | 1% | |
| Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership | |||||||||
| New Democratic Times | 27% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 1% | — | 3% | |
| Military Tribune | 25% | 22% | 20% | 28% | 4% | 1% | — | 3% | |
| Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP | |||||||||
| People's Pravda | 26% | 22% | 20% | 27% | 4% | 1% | — | 1% | |
| Llais Gwirionedd | 28% | 24% | 20% | 23.5% | 3% | 1% | 0.5% | 4% | |
| Llais Gwirionedd | 28% | 24% | 22% | 21.5% | 3% | 1% | 0.5% | 4% | |
| Exit Poll | 28% | 23% | 20.5% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0.5% | 4% | |
| Final Result | 28% | 24% | 19.5% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0.5% | 4% | |
Hortania
| Pollster | Release | HNP | TR | NDLP | Lead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Military Tribune | 38% | 34% | 28% | 4% | |||||
| Military Tribune | 40% | 30% | 30% | 10% | |||||
| Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance | |||||||||
| Hortanian Times | 37% | 35% | 28% | 2% | |||||
| Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership | |||||||||
| Hortanian Times | 35% | 32% | 33% | 2% | |||||
| Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP | |||||||||
| Hortanian Times | 34% | 30% | 36% | 2% | |||||
| Military Tribune | 34% | 30% | 36% | 2% | |||||
| Exit Poll | 33% | 28% | 39% | 6% | |||||
| Final Result | 33% | 31% | 36% | 3% | |||||
Dradelia
| Pollster | Release | DRF | TR | NM | Lead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Military Tribune | 62% | 30% | 8% | 32% | |||||
| Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance | |||||||||
| Dradelian Herald | 58% | 32% | 10% | 26% | |||||
| Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership | |||||||||
| Dradelian Herald | 64% | 26% | 10% | 38% | |||||
| Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP | |||||||||
| Military Tribune | 68% | 22% | 10% | 46% | |||||
| Exit Poll | 66% | 24% | 10% | 42% | |||||
| Final Result | 66% | 24% | 10% | 42% | |||||
Amon Lasgalen
| Pollster | Release | CA | NDLP | LRF | TR | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llais Gwirionedd | 38% | 34% | 16% | 10% | 4% | ||||
| Llais Gwirionedd | 40% | 34% | 14% | 10% | 6% | ||||
| Old Monarchists reform into the Christian Alliance | |||||||||
| Llais Gwirionedd | 40% | 36% | 16% | 8% | 4% | ||||
| Llais Gwirionedd | 42% | 36% | 12% | 8% | 6% | ||||
| Martin Aquinas resigns from The Republicans' leadership | |||||||||
| Llais Gwirionedd | 42% | 40% | 12% | 6% | 2% | ||||
| Martin Aquinas joins the NDLP | |||||||||
| Llais Gwirionedd | 42% | 42% | 12% | 4% | Tie | ||||
| Llais Gwirionedd | 40% | 42% | 14% | 4% | 2% | ||||
| Exit Poll | 42% | 42% | 12% | 4% | Tie | ||||
| Final Result | 40% | 42% | 14% | 4% | 2% | ||||
National Results
Swung Constituencies
Aftermath
New Monarchists
The party leadership of the New Monarchists were visibly dismayed at the election result; although they remained the largest party, they failed to capitalise on the internal tensions in The Republicans, and found themselves leaving a comfortable coalition into one of greater compromise.
King Ronald reiterated his stance that the party would not accept a reduction in the monarch's powers, but acknowledged that the vote was an indication of support for a moderate approach.
The Republicans
Although the party was able to hold onto its core seats, the resignation of Martin Aquinas clearly harmed the party electorally, and the drop of 4% in the result and the loss of Bowburn, South Shields and Whitley Bay came as a disappointment; the party had especially hoped to hold onto their stronghold of Bowburn, despite Martin's personal popularity in the county.
Party leader Harold Wanton stated that he would consider coalition government with the NDLP, and sought to bring the fractured party together, promising a "unified front for republicanism".
NDLP
The clear winners of the election, leader Llewelyn Lawton's speech spoke of the breakthrough win and urged other parties to heed the electorate's call for moderation.
The party reiterated its willingness to enter coalition with either the New Monarchists or The Republicans, and prepared a list of desired ministerial posts.
Christian Alliance
The party called the election a "moderate victory", and was happy with its ability to win seats in eastern Newcastle. Some political commentators however had a more negative view, arguing that the Christian Alliance remained underrepresented in the King's Council, and posited that had the party maintained its calls for electoral reform, it would have fared better in the west and Amon Lasgalen.
The party was quickly dismissed to the opposition, and was not considered for coalition government; as a result, the election tacitly lost the Christian Alliance several lucrative ministerial positions.
Hortanian National Party
The HNP's defeat in York came as a surprise, and curbed plans for a referendum on a White Rose Parliament. Their defeat in South Hortania was also a surprise, and the party acknowledged its poor results in Damian Billbrough's speech.
Nonetheless, the party remained hopeful that its one remaining representative could enter coalition government alongside the New Monarchists and the NDLP, due to their electoral alliance with the former.
Party leaders vocally expressed the need for the party to revitalise its message, and reach out to other sections of Hortania who did not vote for the party.
Dradelian Revolutionary Front
The DRF's leadership expressed contentment with the result, increasing their majority in Dradelia. The loss of their representative in Seaham was seen as a disappointment by some, but was in some sense welcomed by the old guard of the party, who resented the emerging 'Mackem Dradelian' cultural subgroup.
The party stressed its commitment to Dradelian independence and its willingness to continue using force to achieve this aim.
Lasgalen Revolutionary Front
Due to the inability of the Christian Alliance to secure devolution for Amon Lasgalen, it was generally hoped by the party that they could at least increase their voter share, if not win the constituency.
Their poor result of 14% led several members to resign, moderating their calls from that of independence to gradual democratic reform.
Party leader Llewelyn Gwyndyr was forced to resign, and in his place the Millomist faction quickly rose to prominence, essentially reshaping the party from one advocating separatism to one of devolution.
Government Formation
It quickly became clear that the NDLP would be part of any majority government; during the election, the party had expressed willingness to work with both the New Monarchists and The Republicans, and so which coalition would emerge was not obvious.
During the NDLP celebration speech, leader Llewelyn Lawton stated that the party would begin negotiations with both parties.
It was widely acknowledged that the Christian Alliance and DRF would be part of the opposition.
New Monarchist-NDLP-HNP Coalition
Reportedly favoured by Martin Aquinas and Melseeq Seetoornah, several NDLP figures believed that entering into government with the New Monarchists would indicate a real desire to compromise.
NDLP leader Llewelyn Lawton met with King Ronald and the party chairman to discuss coalition formation; the NDLP were reportedly concerned with the New Monarchists' conservative social agenda, 'no-amnesty' policy in relation to Dradelian dissidents, and their continued alliance with the Hortanian National Party.
Nonetheless, after their meeting, Lawton publicly stated the party was 'seriously considering' the coalition offer.
The Republicans-NDLP Coalition
After the result, Republicans leader Harold Wanton reached out to the NDLP proposing a coalition. Leading NDLP figures (including Martin Aquinas, previously chairman of The Republicans) expressed internal opposition to the idea, due largely to The Republicans' hard line manifesto.
Although economically and socially closer to The Republicans, NDLP leadership publicly expressed their wariness, largely due to their having run on a policy of healing the monarchist-republican divide. Nonetheless, party figures met with Harold Wanton several times to discuss coalition formation.
Government Formation
Six days after the election, a coalition government was struck between the New Monarchists, the NDLP and the HNP. The NDLP were given a sizeable number of cabinet positions, including the Premiership, and secured a freeze on religious and social legislation, while the New Monarchists were able to mostly retain their economic agenda.
The party leadership all vocally endorsed the coalition deal, while various local NDLP chapters (especially in Yorkshire and the West) criticised it for failing to guarantee electoral reform; many such chapters instead endorsed an NDLP-Republicans coalition.
The New Monarchists, NDLP and HNP took their seats together two days after the deal was agreed upon.
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